488
FXUS63 KFGF 061004
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
404 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPROVING FOG CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT.
- WEEKEND SYSTEM IS LOOKING LESS IMPACTFUL. 10 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL ALONG THE INTL BORDER TODAY WITH A
500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA. NEXT SHORT WAVE
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH WED NIGHT, WITH NO PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. STRONGER 500 MB SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM NW
CANADA AND ENDS UP NEAR THE MN/MB/ND BORDER 06Z SAT. AFTER
TODAY, A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD AND OVERALL MILDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS AND AT THIS TIME SHOULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WED-
THU.
..TODAY.
OUT AHEAD OF IS A COLD FRONT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT LOCATED AT 09Z FROM NEAR ROSEAU TO THIEF RIVER FALLS
TO WAHPETON. FOG CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND IT BUT STILL A FEW
FOG PATCHES UNTIL YOU GET FARTHER BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE VSBYS
GET MORE WIDESPREAD UNRESTRICTED. LOW CLOUDS THOUGH CONTINUE IN
COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SW
MANITOBA INTO NE ND AND LIKELY FARTHER SOUTHEAST WHERE BRIEF
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED IN PARTS OF SE ND. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
THOUGH THE LOWER CLOUDY LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND ALSO
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE IS NOT AS SATURATED AS IN THE FOG AREA
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIKELY GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND MOST AREAS TODAY, BUT DONT SUPPORT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE FRONT PASSES. THERE ARE FLURRIES THOUGH
CURRENTLY IN NW ND WITH 500 MB TROUGH AND DID MENTION SOME
FLURRIES INTO MIDDAY INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND WITH THIS.
FOG IN MN CWA WILL IMPROVE. COLLAB WITH DLH/MPX WILL KEEP DENSE
FOG ADV OUT BUT LIKELY BE ABLE TO TRIM OR CANCEL BEFORE IT
EXPIRES AT 18Z. STILL ENOUGH POCKETS OF LOWER VSBYS (LESS THAN
1/2 MILE) VIA WEBCAMS AND RWIS SENSORS TO KEEP ADVISORY IN PLACE
EAST OF THE RRV.
..FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN ON THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WX
IMPACTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKING AT 00Z DATA AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES, CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ETC TRENDS NOW FAVOR A FASTER
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM LOW DROPPING SOUTH TO NEAR PEMBINA 06Z
SAT AND THEN QUICKLY SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA 18Z SAT WHERE
IT MAY STILL MEET UP WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FORM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 00Z SAT. GFS DOES KEEP THEM SEPARATE,
THOUGH GEFS HAS VARIED SOLUTIONS, WITH ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF THE
GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING A STRONGER SFC LOW IN S WISCONSIN SATURDAY
VS THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE OTHER MEMBERS A WEAK LOW FARTHER
EAST INTO MICHIGAN. 00Z ECMWF AND ITS AI MODEL SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW MERGING IN NORTHERN IOWA AND
THEN TRACKING TO CHICAGO BY LATE SATURDAY WITH SFC LOW INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ECMWF AI MODEL SHOWING THIS TOO AND KEEPS
THE SNOW AREA DECIDELY WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION WITH
00Z RUN SHOWING LITLE TO NO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MN
AS LOW IS FARTHER EAST. WHAT GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF AND ITS AI
MODEL AND GLOBAL CANADIAN DO SHOW IS SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WITH THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW AT IT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD
PEMBINA ND FRIDAY NIGHT. NBM LIKELY A BIT TOO DRY WITH THIS, BUT
AT THIS TIME WENT ALONG WITH ITS AREAS OF LOW POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHC OF -SN FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. BUT THE MOISTURE
WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE IS PRETTY LIGHT, AND EVEN MODELS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS OVER OUR AREA KEEP PROBS OF MORE THAN
1 INCH 20 PERCENT, WITH PROBS OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES LESS THAN 5
PERCENT OVER THE AREA.
BRIEF COLD AIR SURGE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY BUT WINDS AS
IT LOOKS NOT TOO STRONG WITH 925 MB WINDS NORDTH 20-25 KTS.
SO OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM IS LOOKING
CONSIDERABLY LESS, EVEN USING AN OUTLIER OR LOW CHANCE (10 PCT)
IDEA OF A STRONGER LOW IN S WISCONSIN. THE FEW GEFS MEMBERS WITH
THAT SOLN HAS SOME SNOW BACK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN BUT
LOW FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY AMOUNTS WELL UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS. HENCE THE UPDATED WPC WSSI-P NOW HAVE 5 PCT CHANCE OF
ADVISORY IMPACTS IN WEST CENTRAL MN SATURDAY WITH 0 PCT CHANCE
OF WARNING IMPACTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LIFR TO VLIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF
DENSE FOG CONTINUE OVER EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER WEST-NORTHEST FLOW IS ARRIVING
AND SPREADING EAST FROM CENTRAL ND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TREND CONDITIONS BACK TOWARDS
IFR AND EVEN MVFR ACROSS EASTERN ND IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD AND
EVENTUALLY VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN NORTHWEST MN, AND WHILE MVFR EVENTUALLY
PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR IFR TO
START TO REDEVELOP LATE TUESDAY EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT IN MN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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