936
FXUS63 KFGF 061925
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
125 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM WINTRY MIX INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED.
- DENSE FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WEEKEND SYSTEM IS LOOKING LESS IMPACTFUL. 10 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM WINTRY MIX INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED.
OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FAVORS MORE SNOW
RATHER THAN WINTRY MIX/LIGHT ICING, WHICH WOULD LIMIT IMPACT
POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, RADAR RETURNS NOT LOOKING AS
CONSOLIDATED AS THIS MORNING, SO SHOULD BE EVEN LESS CHANCE FOR
QUICK, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. LESS IMPACTS ARE REFLECTED NICELY
IN LATEST TRAFFIC DATA AS WELL COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITHIN PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MN, MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKES COUNTRY,
AS WEBCAMS AND AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
VERY LOW VISIBILITY OF QUARTER MILE OR LESS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW,
HOWEVER, IN HOW LONG THIS WILL LINGER.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS IN LATEST GUIDANCE FOR
DENSE FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER A LARGER PORTION OF OUR AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
WE'VE INCREASED MESSAGING ON POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WITHIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS DUE TO OBSERVED WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND
SNOW RESULTING IN AT LEAST PARTIALLY SNOW COVERED AND ICY ROADS.
DRIVING THIS WINTRY MIX IS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
UTILIZING INSTABILITY ALOFT, WITH A WARM/DRY NOSE UNDERNEATH
HELPING CHANGE PRECIP FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THIS WINTRY MIX
OVER ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION, ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF
INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO ALLOW QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOW AND A LIGHT GLAZE
OF ICE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED IN FOR CONTINUED IMPACT TO TRAVEL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN WEST-CENTRAL MN AS TEMPERATURES MAY WARM
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE IMPACTS. WILL REASSESS CLOSER TO NOON TO SEE
HOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING AHEAD AND WITHIN THIS AREA
OF WINTRY MIX.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
OVERALL SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN FOG AREA WIDE BUT THERE ARE STILL
PATCHES OF LOW VSBY. ONE WAS OVER DEVILS LAKE 10-12Z WITH UNDER
A MILE BUT HAS MOVED OUT, AND UNSURE WHY IT WAS THERE TO BEGIN
WITH AS SURROUNDING SITES HIGHER. WC MN HAS POCKETS OF VSBY LESS
THAN 1 MILE, LOCALLY 1/4SM, CENTERED AROUND FERGUS FALLS. SO NO
FURTHER CHANGE TO DENSE FOG AREA. RADAR IS SHOWING A BETTER
PICTURE OF THE NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MOVING EAST
THAT WAS IN SE SASK AND NW ND EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. I DID EXPAND
FLURRIES THRU MORE OF E ND/RRV MID MORNING WITH THIS. THOUGHT
ABOUT DOING A POP BUT SEEMS AS IF INTENSITY IS SPOTTY AND JUST
KEPT IT AS FLURRIES AS NARROW BAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL ALONG THE INTL BORDER TODAY WITH A
500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA. NEXT SHORT WAVE
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH WED NIGHT, WITH NO PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. STRONGER 500 MB SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM NW
CANADA AND ENDS UP NEAR THE MN/MB/ND BORDER 06Z SAT. AFTER
TODAY, A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD AND OVERALL MILDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS AND AT THIS TIME SHOULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WED-
THU.
..TODAY.
OUT AHEAD OF IS A COLD FRONT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT LOCATED AT 09Z FROM NEAR ROSEAU TO THIEF RIVER FALLS
TO WAHPETON. FOG CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND IT BUT STILL A FEW
FOG PATCHES UNTIL YOU GET FARTHER BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE VSBYS
GET MORE WIDESPREAD UNRESTRICTED. LOW CLOUDS THOUGH CONTINUE IN
COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SW
MANITOBA INTO NE ND AND LIKELY FARTHER SOUTHEAST WHERE BRIEF
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED IN PARTS OF SE ND. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
THOUGH THE LOWER CLOUDY LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND ALSO
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE IS NOT AS SATURATED AS IN THE FOG AREA
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIKELY GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND MOST AREAS TODAY, BUT DONT SUPPORT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE FRONT PASSES. THERE ARE FLURRIES THOUGH
CURRENTLY IN NW ND WITH 500 MB TROUGH AND DID MENTION SOME
FLURRIES INTO MIDDAY INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND WITH THIS.
FOG IN MN CWA WILL IMPROVE. COLLAB WITH DLH/MPX WILL KEEP DENSE
FOG ADV OUT BUT LIKELY BE ABLE TO TRIM OR CANCEL BEFORE IT
EXPIRES AT 18Z. STILL ENOUGH POCKETS OF LOWER VSBYS (LESS THAN
1/2 MILE) VIA WEBCAMS AND RWIS SENSORS TO KEEP ADVISORY IN PLACE
EAST OF THE RRV.
..FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN ON THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WX
IMPACTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKING AT 00Z DATA AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES, CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ETC TRENDS NOW FAVOR A FASTER
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM LOW DROPPING SOUTH TO NEAR PEMBINA 06Z
SAT AND THEN QUICKLY SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA 18Z SAT WHERE
IT MAY STILL MEET UP WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FORM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 00Z SAT. GFS DOES KEEP THEM SEPARATE,
THOUGH GEFS HAS VARIED SOLUTIONS, WITH ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF THE
GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING A STRONGER SFC LOW IN S WISCONSIN SATURDAY
VS THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE OTHER MEMBERS A WEAK LOW FARTHER
EAST INTO MICHIGAN. 00Z ECMWF AND ITS AI MODEL SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW MERGING IN NORTHERN IOWA AND
THEN TRACKING TO CHICAGO BY LATE SATURDAY WITH SFC LOW INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE ECMWF AI MODEL SHOWING THIS TOO AND KEEPS
THE SNOW AREA DECIDEDLY WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION WITH
00Z RUN SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MN
AS LOW IS FARTHER EAST. WHAT GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF AND ITS AI
MODEL AND GLOBAL CANADIAN DO SHOW IS SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WITH THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW AT IT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD
PEMBINA ND FRIDAY NIGHT. NBM LIKELY A BIT TOO DRY WITH THIS, BUT
AT THIS TIME WENT ALONG WITH ITS AREAS OF LOW POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHC OF -SN FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. BUT THE MOISTURE
WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE IS PRETTY LIGHT, AND EVEN MODELS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS OVER OUR AREA KEEP PROBS OF MORE THAN
1 INCH 20 PERCENT, WITH PROBS OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES LESS THAN 5
PERCENT OVER THE AREA.
BRIEF COLD AIR SURGE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY BUT WINDS AS
IT LOOKS NOT TOO STRONG WITH 925 MB WINDS NORTH 20-25 KTS.
SO OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM IS LOOKING
CONSIDERABLY LESS, EVEN USING AN OUTLIER OR LOW CHANCE (10 PCT)
IDEA OF A STRONGER LOW IN S WISCONSIN. THE FEW GEFS MEMBERS WITH
THAT SOLN HAS SOME SNOW BACK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN BUT
LOW FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY AMOUNTS WELL UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS. HENCE THE UPDATED WPC WSSI-P NOW HAVE 5 PCT CHANCE OF
ADVISORY IMPACTS IN WEST CENTRAL MN SATURDAY WITH 0 PCT CHANCE
OF WARNING IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
HIGHLY IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE FORECAST, MAINLY FROM VERY LOW
CEILINGS IN THE LIFR TO VLIFR CATEGORIES. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PERSISTENTLY STUBBORN VERY LOW CEILINGS LESS THAN 500 FT LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
03Z TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY LONGER. ADDITIONALLY, FOG/DENSE FOG IS
FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP OVER A MUCH LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST IS
MEDIUM-LOW THROUGH 03Z, TURNING VERY LOW AFTER 03Z. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INFLUENCE CEILING HEIGHTS (PERHAPS RAISING
THEM) WHILE ALSO INCORPORATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DENSE FOG
(PERHAPS MAINTAINING THEIR VERY LOW HEIGHTS).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ016-
022-023-027-028-030-031-040.
UPDATE...CJ/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...CJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page