611
FXUS63 KFGF 070120
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
720 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER
FOR OUR AREA LOCALLY, UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AN AREA OF DENSE OF APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED WHERE LOW STRATUS IS
MOVING UP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
RRV ESCARPMENT IN GRIGGS/BARNES COUNTIES (VALLEY
CITY/COOPERSTOWN/LANGDON OBS). THIS WAS RESOLVED BY THE HRRR AS
A EARLY LOCATION FOR NEW FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. HRRR
SHOWS THIS EVENTUALLY ADVECTING EAST AS DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST ARRIVES WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BL FLOW, SHORTING
THE WINDOW FOR IMPACTS BUT RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DENSE
FOG FARTHER EAST IN THE RRV. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TRANSIENT AND SHORTER IN DURATION/MORE LOCALIZED IN IMPACTS I
OPTED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND
WILL MONITOR THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY READILY REVEALS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITHIN THIS FLOW.
UPSTREAM OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW LOOMS, AS DOES A ZONAL UPPER JET OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, INTO MID ATLANTIC.
HEAPING STRATUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER OUR AREA ON THE COOL SIDE/NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
TONIGHT, WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG INTO
THE REGION, PERHAPS WIDESPREAD.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS
ATTENDANT UPPER JET WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CAN, PLACING OUR AREA WITHIN ITS INCREASED BELT OF
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT, WHILE ALSO KEEPING FORCING FOR PRECIP
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS INCREASED
WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE A DRY, CHINOOK-TYPE AIR MASS TO
ADVECT EASTWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. THIS CAN OFTEN
EFFECTIVELY WHISKING AWAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE ALSO
INTRODUCING MILDER TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN AN OVERLY FAVORABLE DIRECTION (E.G. WESTERLY),
BUT REMAIN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE DRYING AIR MASS AND
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD HELP SUNSHINE EEK
INTO THE REGION, UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW EFFECTIVE THIS MAY
BE, LOWERING CONFIDENCE NOT ONLY IN THE CLOUD FORECAST, BUT ALSO
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SHOULD LOW CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN AND
LINGER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING; WHEREAS IF
LOW CLOUDS SCOUR AWAY, TEMPERATURES NEAR AND ABOVE FREEZING
WILL BE LIKELY.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE LIKE UPPER TROUGHING INTO
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS DUE TO THE
CALIFORNIA CUTOFF UPPER LOW SET TO EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA GENERALLY DRY DEVOID OF FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION AS MAJORITY OF FORCING BYPASSES OUR AREA TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.
IT ISN'T UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE UPPER TROUGHING DIGS
FURTHER WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT JET, AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLORADO
LOW-TYPE SYSTEM INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW, BREEZY WINDS, AND COOLER (ALBEIT MORE
SEASONABLE) TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN IS SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
QUICKLY DOMINATING BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXITS
EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
QUICK BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE AS CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS WITH
THESE CLIPPERS IS VERY LOW WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK GETTING JUST
BEYOND THE HORIZON OF PREDICTABILITY.
..WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE PROPENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS WITHIN THE REGION OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AMID ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THERE IS ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CURRENT LOW STRATUS TO DROP IN ALTITUDE TOWARD
THE SURFACE, INTRODUCING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG PERHAPS
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL, WITH HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY HALF A MILE OR LESS AS HIGH AS 60%
WITHIN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LAKES COUNTRY IN MINNESOTA. WHILE
THERE ISN'T MUCH TEMPERATURE DECREASE EXPECTED, INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PUSH SATURATION/SUPER-SATURATION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. HAVEN'T YET ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN MORE EXACT LOCATION OF DENSE
FOG. BUT THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG TO OCCUR TONIGHT
LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
..WEEKEND LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE, A COLORADO LOW-TYPE
WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MERGING/INTERACTING WITH A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
MERGING/INTERACTION NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, KEEPING
VAST MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO OUR REGION, WITH MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPING POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 3 INCHES BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
INTO SATURDAY, AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SHORTWAVES INCREASES,
A GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW TO ENSUE. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
FROM BLOWING SNOW DUE AN EXPECTED SNOWPACK TO BE LARGELY LOCKED
IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY'S ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON SHOULD TEMPERATURES NOT
REACH ABOVE FREEZING AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE).
EVEN IF THE SNOWPACK STAYS BLOWABLE, A LACK OF MORE ROBUST COLD
AIR ADVECTION, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND A LACKLUSTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT/RISE WILL LIMIT HOW HIGH WINDS WILL GET. CURRENT
GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS BELOW 40 MPH. WITH ANTICIPATED
TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE ZERO COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS, ONE
COULD EXPECT INTERMITTENT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO HALF A MILE
IN OPEN COUNTRY, PARTICULARLY IF FALLING SNOW IS CONCURRENT WITH
THESE WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
IMPACTS FROM LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO BRING IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS TO EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN, WITH SOME CLEARING
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG AS DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO ERODE
THIS STUBBORN LAYER FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, STILL A
SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRATUS/FOG TO REDEVELOP WITH
LOCALIZED VLIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE "FINALLY" MVFR AND EVENTUAL
VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONSIDERING HOW PERSISTENT THIS STRATUS/FOG LAYER IS AND SIGNAL
IN SOME CAMS FOR A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW ON TIMING OF EVENTUAL PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST 6HR OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
UPSTREAM TRENDS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND SD WHERE VFR IS
PREVAILING, ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS/FLOW TONIGHT FROM
THOSE DRIER DIRECTIONS AT LEAST GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO HOW NBM AND
CAMS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR
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