830
FXUS63 KFGF 071008
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
408 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY. HOWEVER FOR OUR AREA LOCALLY, UP TO 1 INCH OF
SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB PATTERN IS WESTERLY TODAY INTO THURSDAY THEN BECOMES
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A 500 LOW IN NORTHWEST
SASKATCHEAN AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF A 500 MB LOW THAT WILL BE
OVER NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE NORTHERN LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO TO NEAR THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER AREA 06Z
SAT WHILE THE SOUTHERN WAVE WEAKENS SOME AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWAD MISSOURI BY 06Z SAT. THE TWO WILL MEET UP WITH UPPER LOW
BEING NEAR MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO AREA 06Z SUN WITH SFC LOW LOWER
MICHIGAN MOVING INTO ONTARIO. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB FOLLOWS
THIS INTO NEXT WEEK.
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB TODAY INTO THURSDAY ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WARMER AIR MOVING IN AT THE SFC UP THRU 700 MB WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND 10 MPH THIS EARLY MORNING AND THIS IS
HELPING TO FLUSH OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE EAST. AT 09Z
ONLY AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG IS FAR NORTHWEST MN
ROUGHLY HALLOCK TO BAUDETTE AND CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS EARLY MORNING. HIGHS ALL AREAS SHOULD
REACH 32-38 DEGREES TODAY WITH MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS, HIGH
CLOUDS COULD BE THICK AT TIMES THOUGH LIMITING SUNSHINE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE A FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVE EAST THRU SOUTHERN CANADA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO
NEAR WINNIPEG BY 12Z THU. LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
NORTH OF THE BORDER, WITH OUR AREA SEEING A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING THRU AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND COOLER
AIR MOVING DOWN.
THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS WINDS TURN SOUTH FRIDAY, AND OF THE UPPER
LOW AND WHAT IS LIKELY A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z SAT.
..FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
500 MB LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BE NEAR PEMBINA ND AREA 06Z
SAT AND THEN IN WEST CENTRAL MN 12Z SAT. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE
ENSEMBLES FROM 00Z RUN INDICATE SOME VARIATIONS OF WHERE THIS
UPPER LOW WILL BE WITH OUTLIER SOLUTIONS HAVE THE UPPER LOW
INTO WESTERN IOWA AT THIS TIME, BUT MAJORITY HAVE IT IN BETWEEN
FARGO AND DULUTH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART. AMOUNTS AS VIEWED FROM 12Z TUE WPC
SUPERENSEMBLE AND ALSO FROM 00Z WED ENSEMBLES AND NBM INDICATE
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR A HALF INCH OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM, ESP IN RRV AND MN. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER MICHIGAN WITH 925
MB WINDS FROM ECMWF INDICATING 35 KTS OR SO POSSIBLE, WITH OTHER
MODEL DATA SHOWING CLOSER TO 30 KTS. COLDER SATURDAY WITH THAT
GUSTY NORTH WIND. SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL NOT LIKELY BE
BLOWABLE AS ITS OLD AND WE HAVE HAD AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
PAST FEW DAYS AND ALSO WHAT IS FORECAST TO BE A DAY AROUND OR
ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. HALF INCH OF NEW SNOW WITH THOSE WINDS
WILL CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW, BUT WELL BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS OF IMPACTS. EVEN GOING TO A 10 PCT POSSIBILE OUTCOME OF
SNOWFALL 1-2 INCHES, THE IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE BELOW ADVISORY,
WITH 10 PCT CHANCE OR LESS OF ADVISORY IMPACTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN ARE
ARRIVING AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATED LLJ MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS IS FINALLY HELP ERODE AND CLEAR OUT STRATUS AND
FOG FROM THE WEST TO EAST, WITH A SMALL AREA STILL STUBBORNLY
HOLDING ON EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD NEAR KGFK EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS STRATUS/FOG MAY
LINGER LONGER IN NORTHWEST MN WITH IFR TO VLIFR IMPACTS UNTIL
THE LOW LEVEL CLEARING ARRIVES 09-13Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
TREND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
AND LOW PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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