863
FXUS63 KFGF 072004
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
204 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA.
- A SYSTEM COMING THROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA
WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY OFF INTO
ONTARIO TOMORROW, WITH FLOW AGAIN BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS A SPLIT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THAT SPLIT TROUGH'S NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD START TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVES WILL
PHASE AND CLOSE OFF, BUT AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WILL BE
MOSTLY EAST OF US SATURDAY, MOVING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH.
..MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT
THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TREND OF SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THERE ARE SOME RADAR RETURNS IN
EASTERN MT THAT WOULD TRACK WITH THIS TREND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A HEALTHY DRY LAYER AROUND 900 TO 850MB ACCORDING TO MODEL
SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A SATURATED LAYER AROUND 700MB AND SOME
PRECIP SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT, AND HREF
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY FOR SOME 0.01 INCHES OF ICE. NOT HIGH CHANCES SO WON'T
INCLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT, BUT WORTH A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN MN AND TAPERS OFF.
..SPLIT TROUGH COMING THROUGH SATURDAY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN CONTINUING THE TREND FOR THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT TROUGH TO MOSTLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST,
BUT WE SHOULD STILL GET SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE. MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY, WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING US IN THE COLD, SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PROBABILITIES OF
OVER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ARE LOW, UNDER 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER,
WITH FALLING SNOW SHOWER AND WINDS PICKING UP TO OVER 30 MPH,
COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH BOTH FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. PROBABILISTIC WSSI HAS CHANCES FOR ADVISORY
IMPACTS FAIRLY LOW, AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
AS THE WEEKEND GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS NOW AND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND
FROM A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY BELOW 12 KTS IN SPEED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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