021
FXUS63 KFGF 080050
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA.
- A SYSTEM COMING THROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
UPSTREAM MINOT RADAR RETURNS HAVE GENERALLY REMAIN VIRGA,
THOUGH HIGHER RETURNS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH -RA REPORTS
(TEMPERATURES ABOVE 32 IN THOSE AREAS TO OUR WEST). THIS AREA
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS IS STILL EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA, THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED TO
BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION REACHES THE SURFACE
REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL. HRRR GENERALLY SHOWS THIS BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AS IT TRACKS THROUGH OUR NORTHERN
CWA, AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ONLY THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. P-TYPE COULD GO EITHER
WAY BASED ON SOUNDINGS, THOUGH A WARM NOSE THAT MAY NOT FULLY
SATURATE LEADS TO MOST PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN (FREEZING
RAIN BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS BELOW 32F). RATES MAY REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH THAT ACCRETION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY WHERE THAT OCCURS,
THOUGH ANY AMOUNT OF ICING COULD CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
CONSIDERING THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED, AND THE GENERAL
MESSAGE HASN'T CHANGED WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA
WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY OFF INTO
ONTARIO TOMORROW, WITH FLOW AGAIN BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS A SPLIT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THAT SPLIT TROUGH'S NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD START TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVES WILL
PHASE AND CLOSE OFF, BUT AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WILL BE
MOSTLY EAST OF US SATURDAY, MOVING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH.
..MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT
THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TREND OF SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THERE ARE SOME RADAR RETURNS IN
EASTERN MT THAT WOULD TRACK WITH THIS TREND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A HEALTHY DRY LAYER AROUND 900 TO 850MB ACCORDING TO MODEL
SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A SATURATED LAYER AROUND 700MB AND SOME
PRECIP SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT, AND HREF
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY FOR SOME 0.01 INCHES OF ICE. NOT HIGH CHANCES SO WON'T
INCLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT, BUT WORTH A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN MN AND TAPERS OFF.
..SPLIT TROUGH COMING THROUGH SATURDAY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN CONTINUING THE TREND FOR THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT TROUGH TO MOSTLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST,
BUT WE SHOULD STILL GET SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE. MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY, WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING US IN THE COLD, SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PROBABILITIES OF
OVER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ARE LOW, UNDER 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER,
WITH FALLING SNOW SHOWER AND WINDS PICKING UP TO OVER 30 MPH,
COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH BOTH FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. PROBABILISTIC WSSI HAS CHANCES FOR ADVISORY
IMPACTS FAIRLY LOW, AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
AS THE WEEKEND GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MUCH
DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO
NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (20%) FOR LIGHT SNOW OR
FREEZING RAIN MAINLY NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE MAKES VIRGA MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE NEAR TAF SITES. A LOW LEVEL JET IN
NORTHEAST ND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT (30-35KT) AT KDVL
AND KGFK. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST THEN EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAKER
FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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