988
FXUS63 KFGF 080542
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TONIGHT. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME SLICK WHERE RAIN SHOWERS TRACK OVER SUBFREEZING
SURFACES.
- A SYSTEM COMING THROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MORE REPORTS OF SPRINKLES, BUT WHERE THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURING TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO
MIXING. EVEN THEN, RATES ARE SO LOW MOST AREAS ARE UNLIKELY TO
MEASURE WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE, AND OUTSIDE OF THIS
FALLING INITIALLY ON SUBFREEZING SURFACES AT THE ONSET BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE THE CHANCES FOR ICE ACCRETION ARE LOW. THUS,
IMPACTS WILL TEND TO BE MINIMAL IN OUR CWA EVEN WHERE RAIN
OCCURS (INSTEAD OF VIRGA). I'M ALLOWING THE CURRENT SPS FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO EXPIRE AND WE'LL
MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANY CHANGES.
EARLIER AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN SOUTHERN
BELTRAMI/HUBBARD AND TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS DENSE FOG
POCKET BREAKING UP AS BL IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT AND THIS SPS AS
WELL WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ONE MODERATE SHOWER TRACKED THROUGH WESTERN BENSON COUNTY WITH
REPORTS OF MEASURED RAIN BEFORE IT FELL APART. OTHER RETURNS
STILL HAVE REMAINED VIRGA AS DRY SUBCLOUD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE BANDS OF HIGHER RETURNS JUST TO THE WEST RACKING NORTHEAST
WILL BE MOVING INTO THIS DRIER AIR AS WELL AND COVERAGE OF
IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAIN IN OUR AREA. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED IMPACTS I ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND AM CONTINUING TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
UPSTREAM MINOT RADAR RETURNS HAVE GENERALLY REMAIN VIRGA,
THOUGH HIGHER RETURNS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH -RA REPORTS
(TEMPERATURES ABOVE 32 IN THOSE AREAS TO OUR WEST). THIS AREA
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS IS STILL EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA, THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED TO
BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION REACHES THE SURFACE
REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL. HRRR GENERALLY SHOWS THIS BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AS IT TRACKS THROUGH OUR NORTHERN
CWA, AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ONLY THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. P-TYPE COULD GO EITHER
WAY BASED ON SOUNDINGS, THOUGH A WARM NOSE THAT MAY NOT FULLY
SATURATE LEADS TO MOST PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN (FREEZING
RAIN BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS BELOW 32F). RATES MAY REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH THAT ACCRETION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY WHERE THAT OCCURS,
THOUGH ANY AMOUNT OF ICING COULD CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
CONSIDERING THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED, AND THE GENERAL
MESSAGE HASN'T CHANGED WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA
WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY OFF INTO
ONTARIO TOMORROW, WITH FLOW AGAIN BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS A SPLIT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THAT SPLIT TROUGH'S NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD START TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVES WILL
PHASE AND CLOSE OFF, BUT AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WILL BE
MOSTLY EAST OF US SATURDAY, MOVING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH.
..MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT
THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TREND OF SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THERE ARE SOME RADAR RETURNS IN
EASTERN MT THAT WOULD TRACK WITH THIS TREND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A HEALTHY DRY LAYER AROUND 900 TO 850MB ACCORDING TO MODEL
SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A SATURATED LAYER AROUND 700MB AND SOME
PRECIP SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT, AND HREF
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY FOR SOME 0.01 INCHES OF ICE. NOT HIGH CHANCES SO WON'T
INCLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT, BUT WORTH A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN MN AND TAPERS OFF.
..SPLIT TROUGH COMING THROUGH SATURDAY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN CONTINUING THE TREND FOR THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT TROUGH TO MOSTLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST,
BUT WE SHOULD STILL GET SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE. MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY, WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING US IN THE COLD, SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PROBABILITIES OF
OVER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ARE LOW, UNDER 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER,
WITH FALLING SNOW SHOWER AND WINDS PICKING UP TO OVER 30 MPH,
COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH BOTH FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. PROBABILISTIC WSSI HAS CHANCES FOR ADVISORY
IMPACTS FAIRLY LOW, AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
AS THE WEEKEND GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN ND
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE MORE VARIABLE EARLY THIS
TAF PERIOD IN NORTHWEST/CENTRAL MN. CURRENTLY NEAR KBJI SHALLOW
FOG HAS LED TO VLIFR CONDITIONS, BUT TRENDS SHOULD BE TOWARDS
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 10Z AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST.
CHANCES FOR MVFR TO IFR STRATUS OR FOG INCREASE AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD (AROUND 06Z) THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST
MN AND MAY EXPAND TOWARDS EASTERN ND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MID LEVEL WAVE IS BRINGING HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN WITH MAINLY VIRGA ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 09Z. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE RAIN REACH
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DRY LAYER AND DEPENDING ON RATES AND
TEMPERATURES LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR (LOW CONFIDENCE AT
MOST TAF SITES FOR SURFACE LEVEL IMPACTS).
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS/BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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