896
FXUS63 KFGF 081012
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
412 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SYSTEM COMING THRU FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING UP
TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, WITH A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING EAST AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ADVERTISED 24 HOURS AGO AND ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN OVER NE ND AND NW MN INTO MANITOBA TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL THAN WAS SHOWN FROM 00Z WED
MODELS. PRECIPITATION AREA IS MOSTLY ALOFT AND DOES NEED 25+ DBZ
RETURNS IT SEEMS TO REACH THE GROUND (20 DBZ IN THE FARTHER OUT
RANGES). DRY AIR 800 MB AND LOWER, SO CLOUD BASES AND MOISTURE
IS ABOUT 7000 FT AGL. PRECIP INTENSITY WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVED
INTO DVL BASIN AND EASTWARD BUT INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED INTO
PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST MN AND PRECIP
GREW SOUTHWARD. RWIS SITES IN NW MN WARREN TO LANCASTER
INDICATED ICY CONDITIONS FROM THEIR SENSORS WITH ROAD AND SFC
TEMPS BLO 32F. SO FELT ENOUGH PRECIP TO CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AS
MN511 WAS SHOWING ICY CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADS IN THIS AREA. SO
DID JUST THAT AND ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
EGF TRF HALLOCK ROSEAU WARROAD AND BAUDETTE. RADAR RETURNS,
USING COMPOOSITE OF DRYDEN, WOODLAND AND MAYVILLE RADARS
INDICATE A LESSENING TREND IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. BUT OBS
INDICATE CONTINUED PRECIP IN THE CROOKSTON TO WARROAD BAND AT
09Z. MOST OF IT WILL BE GONE BEFORE 12Z BUT IMPACTS MAY LINGER
LONGER SO WENT 14Z END TIME OF ADVISORY. EARLY SPRING IN WINTER
CONTINUES.
REST OF TODAY....BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL BE NEAR
PEMBINA AT 12Z ...SKIES CLEAR OUT. WINDS ARE MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TODAY AND 850/925 MB TEMPS COOL SO TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY
BUT NOT DRASTICALLY SO. WEAK HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z FRI. LIGHTEST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE FOUND IN FAR NW MN AND NORTHERN RRV WHERE HRRR INDICATES
SOME FOG POTENTIAL. WILL NOT PUT FOG IN GRIDS YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINITY IN LOCATION.
..FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY LIGHT SNOW CHANCE AND WIND.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MODELS INITIALLY LOOK SIMILAR TO
WHAT THEY HAD BEEN SHOWING AS OUR AREA INFLUENCED BY NORTHERN
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR PEMBINA AT 06Z FRI AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL / NORTHERN MN BY 12Z SAT. QUICK GLANCE SHOWS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN 24 HOURS AGO WITH SNOW PROBS FROM WPC
INDICATING 25-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW IN NW
MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. NBM POPS WERE TOO LOW AND DID
BLEND IN SOME CONSHORT VIA COLLAB AND ALSO ADDED IN SOME WPC QPF
OR ADDED IN 0.01 AREA MANUALLY TO GET SOME SNOW ACCUM IN THE
GRIDS. DID ADD POPS SAT AM AS WELL AS EVEN CONSHORT HAD LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF POPS DESPITE GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LIGHT
SNOW ESP RED RIVER AND EAST TO WEST OF BEMIDJI ON WEST SIDE OF
UPPER LOW. 925 MB WINDS PEAK AROUND 30 KTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS. PUTTING IN SUSTAINED 20 KT WIND, TEMPS 13 DEGREES
AND 1 INCH OF BLOWABLE SNOW GIVES NON ADVISORY IMPAPCTS DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. THIS IS AS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN AS WELL SO CONFIDENCE
IN A NON-ADVISORY SITUATION IS INCREASING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN ND
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE MORE VARIABLE EARLY THIS
TAF PERIOD IN NORTHWEST/CENTRAL MN. CURRENTLY NEAR KBJI SHALLOW
FOG HAS LED TO VLIFR CONDITIONS, BUT TRENDS SHOULD BE TOWARDS
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 10Z AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST.
CHANCES FOR MVFR TO IFR STRATUS OR FOG INCREASE AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD (AROUND 06Z) THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST
MN AND MAY EXPAND TOWARDS EASTERN ND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MID LEVEL WAVE IS BRINGING HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN WITH MAINLY VIRGA ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 09Z. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE RAIN REACH
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DRY LAYER AND DEPENDING ON RATES AND
TEMPERATURES LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR (LOW CONFIDENCE AT
MOST TAF SITES FOR SURFACE LEVEL IMPACTS).
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS/BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-
004>009-013>016.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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