184
FXUS63 KFGF 211527
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
IMPACTS TODAY WITHIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR AGAIN THURSDAY,
MAINLY IN OPEN COUNTRY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 40 BELOW TO 60 BELOW ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 927 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
ADJUSTED POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE MAIN PUSH. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE WORST OF THE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY IN CASE WE GET SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AND MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONSTANT LOW VISIBILITY
THAN EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 735 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. STILL THINKING GENERALLY HALF AN INCH UP TO 1 OR
2 INCHES, WITH THE 6 AM OBSERVATION AT NWS GRAND FORKS AT 0.2
INCHES AND STILL SNOWING.
COLD FRONT IS TREKKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE
BRINGING INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHEST WINDS IN OUR AREA
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE FROM NEAR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN,
THROUGH THE SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY, INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY IN
SOUTHEAST ND AND FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS, OF WHICH MAY BE HOLDING BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW
AND SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY PERHAPS REACHING NEAR-BLIZZRD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS THEMSELVES WITHIN OPEN COUNTRY LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A 20% CHANCE TO SEE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOP SHOULD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS BE
DENSE/WIDESPREAD AND/OR ENOUGH BLOWABLE SNOW IS PRESENT TO
SUSTAIN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (BOTH OF WHICH ARE POINTS OF
UNCERTAINTY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW THIS MORNING, GENERALLY DEPOSITING HALF AN INCH UP TO
AROUND 1-2 INCHES. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-50 MPH AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY
WITHIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
LINGER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS LESSENING
MOMENTARILY BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS TO TWENTIES BELOW
ZERO, GUSTY WINDS, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AGAIN IN OPEN COUNTRY
WITHIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
BEHIND THIS ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY COMES VERY COLD AIR MASS. THIS
WILL START THE ONSET OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE 40
TO 60 BELOW ZERO RANGE, LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY TO HAZARDOUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
GETTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE NOW MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR MASS
IS FORECAST TO START PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OVERALL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK, WITH NO SIGNAL FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION NOR
GUSTY WINDS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK CLIPPERS THAT BRING
BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY
BELOW AVERAGE.
..IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THURSDAY
STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF/NARROW BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE, AT TIMES NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVIEST SHOWERS, MAINLY WITHIN OPEN COUNTRY
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY, A RESURGENCE IN MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HOLDING LIGHT TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THURSDAY, AS WELL AS ANOTHER INCREASE IN
WINDS GUSTING 15-30 MPH, HIGHEST WITHIN THE EASTERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. THE INCREASE IN WINDS, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, AND
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIVE REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY WITHIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
RED RIVER VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN HOW WIDESPREAD OR SUSTAINED MARKEDLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY BE FOR ANY LOCATION WITHIN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS MAINLY STEMS FROM UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE
ABLE TO BLOW AROUND - GENERAL EXPECTATION IS AROUND 1 INCH OF
SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THE AREA IS AVAILABLE TO BLOW AROUND, WHICH
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN MORE CONSISTENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
(IN ADDITION TO A LACK OF STRONG WINDS), BUT SOME AREAS MAY
LOCALLY HOLD CLOSER TO 2 INCHES OF BLOWABLE SNOWPACK. ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM COVERAGE, OR HOW DENSE, SOW SHOWERS MAY
BE. THE DENSER THE COVERAGE, THE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
REDUCED VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE.
AT THIS TIME ADVISORY-LEVEL IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TODAY IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH A 40% CHANCE AT
SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS AGAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY,
MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS AROUND 20%, WITHIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY - AGAIN, DEPENDENT UPON
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA IN EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND/OR SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BLOWABLE SNOWPACK TO
SUSTAIN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 735 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.
AREA OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
GENERALLY 2-4SM BEFORE 18Z, ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
A COLD FRONT TRAILS JUST BEHIND THIS AREA OF SNOW, INCREASING
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20-30KT, GUSTS TO 25-35KT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE LOWERED CEILINGS INTO THE IFR AND MVFR CATEGORIES, AS
WELL AS BRING SHARP REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS 1/2SM, IN ADDITION TO BLOWING SNOW, AT SITES LIKE KDVL, KGFK,
KFAR, AND KTVF. TIMING WHEN THIS WOULD HAPPEN IS VERY DIFFICULT.
WILL HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL WITH TEMPO GROUPS WITHIN THE 6 HR
PERIOD. CHANCE FOR SEEING THESE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IS
RELATIVELY HIGHEST BETWEEN 15Z-00Z.
SNOW SHOWERS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1SM-4SM ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER AFTER 00Z, ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THESE IS TOO LOW IN CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITHIN TAFS FOR NOW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING A RESURGENCE
IN GUSTY WINDS, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW BRINGING
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWERED CEILINGS. HAZARDOUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS ALSO COMES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT THURSDAY, LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ024-027>030-038-039.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-026-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>003-013>017-022>024-027-028.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ004>009.
UPDATE...CJ/JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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