552
FXUS63 KFGF 212100
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
IMPACTS THIS EVENING WITHIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 40 BELOW TO 60 BELOW ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE
NEXT REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE
COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON DOWN INTO THE AREA.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF OVER 1050MB IS
FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE BUT LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW
DIGS DOWN FOR SATURDAY, TURNING FLOW NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY AS IT
COMES DOWN INTO ONTARIO AND MN. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT START TO MODERATE A
BIT.
..SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
THE RED RIVER VALLEY, ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES, SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW HAVE BEEN IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA A
BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER. THINK THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GO DOWN, AND
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY DECREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BIT
LONGER INTO THE EVENING, BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT COMES DOWN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS OVER
30 MPH ARE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY AND PROBABILITIES OF OVER 40 MPH
GUSTS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT. MAY BE MORE DRIFTING SNOW THAN SNOW
BEING LOFTED AND IMPACTING VISIBILITY, AND WHILE THERE WILL BE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, NOT AS MANY AS TODAY. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW IT
DEVELOPS.
..EXTREME COLD THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND 1050MB HIGH COMING DOWN, EXTREMELY
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION. PROBABILITIES OF
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AT -40 OR LOWER ARE NEAR 100 PERCENT BY
THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THE ECMWF EFI SHOWS A VERY STRONG
COLD SIGNAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE
ONGOING WARNING/ADVISORY HEADLINES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING FOR A TRANSITION PERIOD, THEN HAVE ALL COUNTIES IN THE
EXTREME COLD BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME QUESTION OF HOW WINDS WILL BEHAVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS, JUST WENT EXTREME COLD WARNING THROUGH
MID- DAY ON FRIDAY AND KEPT THE WATCH GOING AFTER THAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VISIBILITY AT THE AIRPORTS IS MOSTLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE GONE
DOWN TO 2 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES. THINK THAT HIGHEST WINDS ARE
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES, SO THE MORE CONSISTENT LOW
VISIBILITY WILL BE THERE AND OUR AIRPORTS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF
MVFR. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING. THEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR, WITH A
FEW DROPS DOWN TO IFR NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS THAT
ARE GUSTING ABOVE 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS
EVENING, THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ024-027>030.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ024-027>030.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ038-039.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ038-039-049-052-053.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-026-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ001-002-013>017-022-023.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ001-002-013>017-022-023.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ003-024-027-028.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ003-024-027>032-040.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR MNZ004>009.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR
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