639
FXUS63 KFGF 221141
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
541 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS 40 BELOW TO 55 BELOW ZERO TODAY
THRU FRIDAY NOON. AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEEKEND WIND CHILLS 30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
EXPANDED THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES TODAY TO ALL AREAS THRU 23Z.
MOSTLY ICE CRYSTALS THAN ANYTHING. VARIABLE SKY WITH POCKETS OF
STRATOCU IN THE COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN THEN CLEARING PATCHES.
OVERALL TEMPS, WIND FOLLOWING FORECAST PRETTY WELL SO NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO BE MADE TO THE ONGOING FCST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CORE OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SFC TO 500 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EALRY FRIDAY. THEN A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL HIGHS AND
LOWS BELOW ZERO. 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN IN GENERAL SHOWS A
PROGRESSION OF 500 MB SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU CENTRAL
CANADA TOWARD THE NORDTHERN GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK KEEPING A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPIATATION IS FORECAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS AND NO IMPACTFUL WIND ISSUES THAT WOULD LEAD TO ADVISORY
IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW.
..VERY COLD INTO THE WEEKEND
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO MORE
NORTHWEST-NORTH. CORE OF THE COLD AIR UPSTREAM WILL BE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
THRU SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH WIND TODAY (15-25 KTS) TO BRING AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW, MOSTLY LOW LEVEL STUFF BLOWING ACROSS THE ROAD,
TODAY AND WITH THE WIND AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY WIND
CHILLS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY REACHING THE COLDER THAN 40
BELOW IN MOST AREAS LATE TODAY AND HOLDING IN THE 45 BELOW TO 55
BELOW ZERO RANGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MIDDAY. WINDS LIGHTEN UP
FRIDAY AS HIGH IS JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF US, THUS WIND CHILLS
NOT AS COLD AND LOOK TO HOVER IN THE 30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO
RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FOCUS THOUGH OF THE COLD AND IMPACTS ARE TODAY THRU NOON FRIDAY.
CONSENSUS OF THE NWS OFFICE THAT STILL HAD EXTREME COLD WATCH
WAS TO LEAVE WATCH IN PLACE AS NOT CLEAR YET WHERE ADVISORY VS
WARNING WOULD BE 18Z FRI-18Z SAT PERIOD.
DID HAVE FLURRIES MENTIONED TODAY, PROBABLY MORE LIKE ICE
CRYSTALS, AS WILL HAVE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH LIKELY THIN
STRATOCU DEVELOPING AND MOVING THRU. SUNNIER FRIDAY.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NOT REACHING ABOVE
ZERO TIL MONDAY. WINDS WHILE NOT STRONG, WILL BE ENOUGH ESP AT
NIGHT TO BRING LOW WIND CHILLS INTO THE ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY
WARNING IMPACT RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
TODAY IS A DAY OF VARIABLE CONDITIONS. VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING
IN AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY TO 25 KTS. ALSO
MIX OF THIN STRATOCU IN THE MVFR CATEGORY GIVING BKN COVERAGE AT
TIMES, THEN SCATTERED AT OTHER TIMES. SO HIGHLY VARIABLE SKY
FROM SCT TO BKN. PUT BKN AS PREDOMINATE TODAY JUST BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS. VSBYS TOO IN LIGHT SNOW/CRYSTALS AS LOW AS 1 1/2SM
BUT TIMES OF P6SM AS WELL. SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
WINDS DIMINISH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-054.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ038-039.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ038-039-049-052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
004>009-013>017-022-023.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ003-024-027-
028.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ003-024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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