197
FXUS63 KFGF 221754
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1154 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS 40 BELOW TO 60 BELOW ZERO TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT NOON. AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE WEEKEND, WIND CHILLS WILL BE 30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW
ZERO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
DECIDED TO UP THE START TIME OF THE EXTREME COLD WARNING TO
NOW, AS WIND CHILLS NEARLY EVERYWHERE ARE REACHING CRITERIA.
WIND CHILLS WILL HOLD IN THE -35 TO -50 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE FALLING FURTHER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VERY COLD THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS NOW IN THE
-20'S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE
NOSEDIVED AS WELL, WITH VALUES AS COLD AS -55 NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALSO RESULTED IN AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT AS SEVERE OR
WIDESPREAD AS WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT VISIBILITY HAS FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE 1 TO 5 MILE RANGE. THERE ARE TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HALLOCK TO CROOKSTON CORRIDOR WHEN VISIBILITY
DROPS UNDER A HALF OR EVEN A QUARTER OF A MILE, BUT THIS SEEMS
LOCALIZED. UPDATED HEADLINES WERE SENT, AND OUR FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON HOW TO HANDLE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
EXPANDED THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES TODAY TO ALL AREAS THRU 23Z.
MOSTLY ICE CRYSTALS THAN ANYTHING. VARIABLE SKY WITH POCKETS OF
STRATOCU IN THE COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN THEN CLEARING PATCHES.
OVERALL TEMPS, WIND FOLLOWING FORECAST PRETTY WELL SO NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO BE MADE TO THE ONGOING FCST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CORE OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SFC TO 500 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THEN A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL HIGHS AND
LOWS BELOW ZERO. 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN IN GENERAL SHOWS A
PROGRESSION OF 500 MB SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU CENTRAL
CANADA TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK KEEPING A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THE NEXT
7 DAYS AND NO IMPACTFUL WIND ISSUES THAT WOULD LEAD TO ADVISORY
IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW.
..VERY COLD INTO THE WEEKEND
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO MORE
NORTHWEST-NORTH. CORE OF THE COLD AIR UPSTREAM WILL BE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
THRU SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH WIND TODAY (15-25 KTS) TO BRING AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW, MOSTLY LOW LEVEL STUFF BLOWING ACROSS THE ROAD,
TODAY AND WITH THE WIND AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY WIND
CHILLS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY REACHING THE COLDER THAN 40
BELOW IN MOST AREAS LATE TODAY AND HOLDING IN THE 45 BELOW TO 55
BELOW ZERO RANGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MIDDAY. WINDS LIGHTEN UP
FRIDAY AS HIGH IS JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF US, THUS WIND CHILLS
NOT AS COLD AND LOOK TO HOVER IN THE 30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO
RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FOCUS THOUGH OF THE COLD AND IMPACTS ARE TODAY THRU NOON FRIDAY.
CONSENSUS OF THE NWS OFFICE THAT STILL HAD EXTREME COLD WATCH
WAS TO LEAVE WATCH IN PLACE AS NOT CLEAR YET WHERE ADVISORY VS
WARNING WOULD BE 18Z FRI-18Z SAT PERIOD.
DID HAVE FLURRIES MENTIONED TODAY, PROBABLY MORE LIKE ICE
CRYSTALS, AS WILL HAVE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH LIKELY THIN
STRATOCU DEVELOPING AND MOVING THRU. SUNNIER FRIDAY.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NOT REACHING ABOVE
ZERO TIL MONDAY. WINDS WHILE NOT STRONG, WILL BE ENOUGH ESP AT
NIGHT TO BRING LOW WIND CHILLS INTO THE ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY
WARNING IMPACT RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW SHOWERS
AND BLOWING SNOW CAUSING CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
GENERALLY, VISIBILITY WILL STAY MVFR TO IFR WITH CEILINGS MVFR.
WHILE THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW, IT WILL NOT PREVAIL, SO USED
PROB30S AT MOST SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT FOUR HOURS. AFTER SUNSET, CEILINGS SHOULD RISE, WINDS WILL
DECREASE, AND AS A RESULT, VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE, ESPECIALLY AT KBJI FOR MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF, PUT ADDED IN A SCT030 DECK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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