597
FXUS63 KFGF 231728
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1128 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THRU SUNDAY MORNING, COLDEST THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES IN THE -40S AND -50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST OR HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
DANGEROUS COLD CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH WIND CHILLS
RANGING FROM -40 IN THE SOUTH TO -50 NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS WE GO THROUGH TODAY, A COMBINATION OF DECREASING WIND
AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE WIND CHILL VALUES
SLIGHTLY, BEFORE THEY GO DOWN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP. MADE SOME UPDATES TO SKIES AND HEADLINE WORDING BASED ON
LATEST OBS, WITH THE FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
THE AREA OF STRATOCU THAT DID DROP SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO
NORTHEAST ND OVERNIGHT HAS PRETTY MUCH THINNED OUT AND IS NOT
SHOWN ON SATELLITE ANY LONGER. TEMPS IN MOST AREA HELD STEADY
FROM 06Z TO 12Z AND WIND CHILLS REMAIN -50S NORTH AND -40S
SOUTH.
TWEEKED SKY COVER A BIT FOR AVIATION TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
THOUGH THE COLDEST OF THE AIRMASS NOW OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
MORE EAST AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL VALUES
MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST OTHER THAN PERIODIC PERIODS WHERE FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..COLD THRU THE WEEKEND
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS AT THE SFC-500 MB IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY, WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -44C AND 850 MB TEMPS -26 TO -34C.
1055 MB SFC HIGH IN SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND IT WILL WEAKEN
JUST A BIT IN PRESSURE TO A 1049 MB HIGH NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA,
SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA BORDER AT 00Z SAT. WHAT WE ARE SEEING
THIS EARLY MORNING IS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF S
MANITOBA AND INTO THE RRV AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
QUICKLY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. OBS INDICATE
SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE AS NOTED BY AN AREA OF WHAT LOOKS
LIKE PRETTY THIN STRATOCU MOVING SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
NORTHEAST ND ALONG WITH ICE CRYSTALS NOTED. CLOUDS THOUGH ON IR
SEEM TO BE THINNING OUT MORE AS THEY DROP SOUTH. BUT ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER TO STOP TEMPS FROM FALLING THE LAST FEW HOURS IN
NORTHEAST ND WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE HELD -22 TO -18F SINCE 05Z.
COLDEST TEMPS FOUND IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN
BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA. ENOUGH OF A WEST-NORTHEAST WIND
CONTINUES IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE, LOCALLY HIGHER AT TIMES, TO
REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE WARNING RANGE ALL AREAS WITH -50S
NORTH TO -40S SOUTH.
TODAY WILL SEE SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES THIS MORNING IN
PARTICULAR WITH THIS UPPER WAVE AND A STEADY WNW WIND 8 TO 18KTS
PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE WARNING RANGE ALL AREAS THRU 18Z.
WINDS DIMINISH MORE LATER TODAY AND WILL SEE WIND CHILLS RISE
OUT OF WARNING INTO ADVISORY RANGE (-30S) FOR SE ND/WC MN.
COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT LIGHT WINDS OVERALL. SATURDAY WILL
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND NOT AS COLD
TEMPERATURES, ENOUGH SO THAT WIND CHILLS FOR A TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON RISE ABOVE ADVISORY RANGE (INTO THE MINUS TEENS)
BEFORE DROPPING BACK SATURDAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
OVERALL NEXT WEEK IS PRETTY QUIET. THERE ARE SOME UPPER LEVEL
WAVES MOVING THRU THAT MAY GIVE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW BUT AT THIS
TIME CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ARE LESS THAN 15 PCT. TUESDAY
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
AND DROP SOUTHEAST TO OUR EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO MICHIGAN. FCST
SHOWS NORTHWEST WINDS 12-20 KT RANGE SUSTAINED TUESDAY,
POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL BLOWING/DRIFTING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER GOING VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY, BUT AGAIN REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE NO CATEGORY CHANGES, A BKN100 DECK
WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, EXPECT NO AVIATION IMPACTS FROM CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ049-
052-053.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
SUNDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027-028.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ029>032-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
SUNDAY FOR MNZ029>032-040.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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