345
FXUS63 KFGF 231937
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
137 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
COLD REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACTIVELY SLIDING TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS TO OUR
SOUTH, AND END UP OVER SOUTHERN MN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTH TO END THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS AGAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR FA.
THEREAFTER, PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP US RIDING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALL THE WAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SEVERAL WAVES LOOK TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT
PREDICTABILITY ON THEIR INTENSITY, WHERE THEY TRACK AND WHAT TIMES
THEY COME THROUGH ALL REMAIN LOW. LATE IN THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES
DIVERGE INTO TWO CAMPS, WITH A STRUGGLE BETWEEN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. WITH OUR FA FIRMLY ON THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, ANY LITTLE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OR
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT WEATHER. THE NBM'S
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF ABOUT 20 DEGREES BY THURSDAY SHOWS THIS
UNPREDICTABILITY WELL. THIS LOW PREDICTABILITY LASTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
..EXTREME COLD THROUGH SUNDAY
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM WHAT HAS BEEN MESSAGED THE PAST FEW DAYS,
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS EVOLVING ABOUT AS EXPECTED. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRIVEN DOWN
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO, WITH A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS IN
NORTHWESTERN MN TOUCHING ON -30F. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THEREFORE, WIND
CHILLS WILL NOT BOTTOM OUT QUITE AS LOW, WITH VALUES OF -50 IN
THE NORTH AND -35 IN THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST
ON SATURDAY, WE WILL BE LEFT IN A WEAK WAA REGIME. THIS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE (ALBEIT SINCE WE ARE STARTING AT
SUCH A LOW POINT, HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW ZERO). THERE WILL BE
A BREAK IN THE "EXTREME" COLD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WHERE WIND CHILLS RISE ABOVE HEADLINE CRITERIA.
THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS ANOTHER HIGH TRACKS SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, DRIVING WIND CHILLS
BACK INTO THE -30 TO -50 RANGE, COLDEST NORTH, WARMEST SOUTH.
NO HEADLINE CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST WAY TO TELL THE
STORY OF COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MAINTAINING SIMPLER
HEADLINES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
SOME COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ISSUED FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS WE SAW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THIS MORNING. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL DETERMINE HOW TO PROCEED
WITH HEADLINES BEYOND NOON ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER GOING VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY, BUT AGAIN REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE NO CATEGORY CHANGES, A BKN100 DECK
WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, EXPECT NO AVIATION IMPACTS FROM CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027-028.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ029>032-040.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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