219
FXUS63 KFGF 240519
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1119 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD AS
MINUS 50.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
WINDS CHILLS ARE WIDELY CURRENTLY IN THE -25 TO -40 RANGE WITH
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 10/I94
WHERE WIND CHILLS OF -40 OR COLDER ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NOT
COVERED BY THE EXTREME COLD WARNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
COLD REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACTIVELY SLIDING TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS TO OUR
SOUTH, AND END UP OVER SOUTHERN MN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTH TO END THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS AGAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR FA.
THEREAFTER, PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP US RIDING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALL THE WAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SEVERAL WAVES LOOK TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT
PREDICTABILITY ON THEIR INTENSITY, WHERE THEY TRACK AND WHAT TIMES
THEY COME THROUGH ALL REMAIN LOW. LATE IN THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES
DIVERGE INTO TWO CAMPS, WITH A STRUGGLE BETWEEN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. WITH OUR FA FIRMLY ON THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, ANY LITTLE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OR
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT WEATHER. THE NBM'S
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF ABOUT 20 DEGREES BY THURSDAY SHOWS THIS
UNPREDICTABILITY WELL. THIS LOW PREDICTABILITY LASTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
..EXTREME COLD THROUGH SUNDAY
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM WHAT HAS BEEN MESSAGED THE PAST FEW DAYS,
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS EVOLVING ABOUT AS EXPECTED. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRIVEN DOWN
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO, WITH A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS IN
NORTHWESTERN MN TOUCHING ON -30F. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THEREFORE, WIND
CHILLS WILL NOT BOTTOM OUT QUITE AS LOW, WITH VALUES OF -50 IN
THE NORTH AND -35 IN THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST
ON SATURDAY, WE WILL BE LEFT IN A WEAK WAA REGIME. THIS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE, ALBEIT SINCE WE ARE STARTING AT
SUCH A LOW POINT, HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW ZERO. THERE WILL BE
A BREAK IN THE "EXTREME" COLD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WHERE WIND CHILLS CLIMB ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA.
THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS ANOTHER HIGH TRACKS SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, DRIVING WIND CHILLS
BACK INTO THE -30 TO -50 RANGE, COLDEST NORTH, WARMEST SOUTH.
NO HEADLINE CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST WAY TO
TELL THE STORY OF COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MAINTAINING
SIMPLER HEADLINES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE SOME COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ISSUED FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY, BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS WE SAW YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THIS MORNING. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL DETERMINE HOW TO
PROCEED WITH HEADLINES BEYOND NOON ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING MID LEVEL AROUND
10KFT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 5 MPH RIGHT NOW AND UP TO 10
MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE WAS STILL TO LOW TO
DETERMINISTICALLY ADD IT TO THE TAF FOR ANY TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027-028.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ029>032-040.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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