623
FXUS63 KFGF 241809
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1209 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS REMAIN AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
AS LOW AS MINUS 45.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WITHIN NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MN. UPSTREAM IN
WESTERN ND, ADDITIONAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACCOMPANIES
WEAK FORCING FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
REGARDING THE HAZARDOUS COLD, LATEST GUIDANCE FROM BOTH 12Z HREF
AND 06Z REFS SHOW PROBABILITY FOR -40F IS LESS THAN 50% ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-94 CORRIDOR. WITH THIS IN MIND, OPTED TO CONVERT
PORTION OF THE EXTREME COLD WARNING TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
ALONG I-94 CORRIDOR. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LOCATIONS JUST
TOUCHING -40F AT TIMES SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY, BUT STILL OPTING TO RETAIN THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HIGHER CHANCE AT SEEING WIND
CHILLS DEEPER INTO THE 40S BELOW ZERO MORE
CONSISTENTLY/WIDESPREAD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
MID CLOUDS OVER E ND AND SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO MN. VERY
EASTERN FCST AREA (BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS) AROUND 30 BELOW AIR TEMP
AT 11Z AND WINDS CALM. IN CLOUDY AREAS TEMPS HAVE HELD IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE. DISCUSSED
IN THE NPW PRODUCT ABOUT WIND CHILLS BEING OUT OF THE WARNING
RANGE FOR A TIME TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BUT BACK INTO WARNING
RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM. THIS WAS FOR THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID NEXT WEEK THEN BECOME A BIT MORE
WEST NORTHWEST AND WESTERLY LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. CHANCES OF FLURRIES AT TIMES, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..WIND CHILLS
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS MOVING OUT AS SFC WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH 5-10 KTS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY.
IN ADDITION THERE IS MID CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON IN ZONE OF WARM 925-850 MB WARM
ADVECTION.
WITH CLOUDS OVER E ND AND RRV TEMPS REACHED LOW POINT IN THE MID
EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE BEEN RISING OR STEADY SINCE. WITH
WINDS OVERALL LIGHT 4-8 MPH WIND CHILLS IN MOST ALL AREAS ARE
OUT OF WARNING RANGE, AND WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS TODAY
EXPECTATION IS FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS COLD WIND
CHILLS THIS AFTN/EVE BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS SOUTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOW TO HANDLE THE BREAK IN
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WAS DISCUSSED. TO AVOID CONFUSION, IN
AREAS THAT WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA OR CLOSE TO IT RETURN
TONIGHT INTO SUN AM KEPT EXTREME COLD WARNING GOING THOUGH
DAYTIME TODAY WILL NOT SEE SUB 40 BELOW WIND CHILLS. NOW FOR
AREAS BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS CURRENT FCST WIND CHILLS THRU
SUNDAY DO NOT SHOW THEM RETURNING TO CLOSE TO WARNING RANGE THRU
SUNDAY, AND IN FACT WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THAT AREA EVEN
TONIGHT, WIND CHILLS SPEND MOST OF THE TIME IN THE -20S.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH IN BJI/PKD AREA TO GO JUST ADVISORY
18Z SAT TO 18Z SUN. KEPT WARNING GOING THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ARE
NEAR 30 BELOW AND ANY WIND WILL EASILY PUSH WIND CHILLS TO -40.
500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING,
EXITING LATE TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES WAS TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS
THERE IS SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE 700 MB CLOUD LAYER.
BEYOND SUNDAY WE WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL INTO MID
NEXT WEEK BUT HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE ZERO AND WIND CHILLS MOST
PERIODS OUT OF ADVISORY OR WARNING RANGE. UPPER WAVE, WEAK SFC
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NE MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW TO KENORA, DRYDEN ONT AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST FCST AREA AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD A LOW POP. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WEDNESDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL ND AND
AGAIN LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS.
NEITHER OF THESE LOOK TO IMPACT TRAVEL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THE TAF BETWEEN
THORUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z, THE
CHANCE FOR CEILINGS TO DIP INTO MVFR INCREASES, WHICH WAS
INCLUDED IN TAFS. THIS ALSO BRINGS CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 4-6SM RANGE BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. WINDS
WILL BE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN TURNING OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 7-12KT GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
004>008-013>015-022.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ003-009-016-
017-023-024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...CJ
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