261
FXUS63 KFGF 242155
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE AND WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO FEED MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MEAGER INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE
FLOW ALOFT IS ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS ND
AND NORTHERN MN TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT
WITH REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS OUR AREA SUNDAY,
ALLOWING DECREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS TO TWENTIES
BELOW ZERO AND A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTH, ALLOWING HAZARDOUSLY
COLD CONDITIONS TO RE-ENTER OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TREND RELATIVELY WARMER MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH DAILY MINIMUMS BELOW
ZERO.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY, ALTHOUGH SOME
INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT EMANATE OUT
OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AS COMPACT UPPER RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS IS ALSO A RESULT OF
WEAK PACIFIC JET WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT NOSING INTO
THIS REGION. ENSEMBLES ALLOW COMPACT, TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT TO EMANATE FROM THIS PACIFIC JET INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE OF THESE WAVES MAY INFLUENCE OUR
AREA WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHICH WAVE MAY BRING THESE
CONDITIONS, IF ANY. THERE IS ALSO SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ENSEMBLES IN A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING
SOUTHERN MB, WESTERN ON, INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. THIS
MAY ALSO BRING ITS OWN PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE TRANSIENT/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
..HAZARDOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN HAZARDOUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS CHANGES TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DECREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND ARCTIC AIR MASS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 BELOW
ZERO ARE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200
CORRIDOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM BOTH 12Z HREF AND 12Z REFS SHOW
PROBABILITY FOR -40F IS LESS THAN 50% ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94
CORRIDOR. WITH THIS IN MIND, OPTED TO CONVERT PORTION OF THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG I-94
CORRIDOR. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LOCATIONS JUST TOUCHING -40F
AT TIMES SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY,
BUT STILL OPTING TO RETAIN THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HIGHER CHANCE AT SEEING WIND CHILLS DEEPER
INTO THE 40S BELOW ZERO MORE CONSISTENTLY/WIDESPREAD.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL 40 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS DECREASES
BELOW 50% AFTER SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS COULD
BRIEFLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S BELOW ZERO MONDAY MORNING OUTSIDE
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THE TAF BETWEEN
THORUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z, THE
CHANCE FOR CEILINGS TO DIP INTO MVFR INCREASES, WHICH WAS
INCLUDED IN TAFS. THIS ALSO BRINGS CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 4-6SM RANGE BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. WINDS
WILL BE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN TURNING OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 7-12KT GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
004>008-013>015-022.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ001-002-004>008-013>015-022.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-009-016-
017-023-024-027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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