287
FXUS63 KFGF 251141
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
541 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS COLD WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
EXTREME COLD WARNING AREA WORKING OUT WITH -40S AND -50S IN NE
ND FOR WIND CHILLS AND ALSO FAR NW MN. COLDEST TEMPS IN S
MANITOBA AND ALSO SEEPING INTO FAR NORTHERN ND WITH AIR TEMPS IN
THE -30S IN LANGDON. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKY NE ND AND FAR
NW MN AS COLD DRY AIRMASS WORKS SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST ND INTO MN AND ALSO A TAD WARMER WITH SOME FLURRIES.
ICE CRYSTALS AT TIMES YET IN THE VERY COLD AIRMASS. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLEARING SOUTHWARD AND A MAINLY SUNNY DAY FOR THE
AREA, ALBEIT A COLD ONE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THRU THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH WITH SOUTH
WINDS TURNING NORTH. FRONT WAS NEAR A BAUDETTE TO FOSSTON TO
NEAR FARGO TO ABERDEEN LINE. AREA OF CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WITH FLURRIES. BEHIND IT ICE CRYSTALS BEFORE CLEARER AND
DRIER AIRMASS (AND COLDER) MOVES IN. IN MUCH OF NE ND AND ALONG
MINNESOTA/MANITOBA BORDER TEMPS BY SUN MORNING MAY BE THE
COLDEST YET THIS WINTER. -30S (F) UPSTREAM AT WINNIPEG AND
BRANDON MB.
CLEARER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTH, BUT LINGERING
FLURRIES OR ICE CRYSTALS STILL IN SOUTHERN RRV AND WEST CENTRAL
MN THRU MID MORNING. WIND CHILLS WITH THE COLD TEMPS ARE WELL
WITHINN THE WARNING RANGE IN THE EXTREME COLD WARNING AREA OF NE
ND AND NW MN. COLDER TODAY THAN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MINUS TO
MINUS 15. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN ND TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING BACK TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. COLD DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MN WHERE LOWS IN THE -20S
ANTICPATED, WITH TEENS BELOW ELSEWHERE AS WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH.
MONDAY WILL SEE A FAST MOVING 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHEAST AS IT DOES
MONDAY AND AFTER COLLAB WITH NWS DULUTH DID NOT USE DRY NBM POPS
AND USED A MORE ECAM/NBM BLEND WHICH SPREADS LIKELY AND CHANCE
POPS TO NORTHERN RRV AND NW MN ROUGHLY LANGDON-GRAND FORKS-PARK
RAPIDS AND NORTH LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS
AND CAMS SHOW THIS AND SEEMS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AGAINST DRY
NBM AND USE WPC QPF WHICH IN SNOWFALL GIVES UP TO 0.5 INCH OF
SNOW IN NW MN MOSTLY 18Z MON TO 00Z TUE.
FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE WILL BE RE-FORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVING IN BUT OVERALL COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST. BUT STILL ENOUGH COLD AIR TO KEEP HIGHS
MOSLTY SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO
THROUGH FRIDAY.
..WIND CHILL HEADLINES INTO MONDAY MORNING
BASED ON ABOVE, WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS WITH EXTREME
COLD WARNING NE ND AND PARTS OF NW MN THRU 18Z TODAY AND THEN
HAVE ALL AREAS IN COLD WX ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS -30 TO -40F
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID MORNING MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
I ANTICIPATE A VFR FLIGHT CATEORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LINGERING
THIN STRATOCU AND ICE CRYSTALS AT TIMES REDUCING VSBY UNDER 5 SM
YET THIS EARLY MORNING BUT AS DRIER COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL. NW WIND TODAY 5-13KTS, TURNING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT 5-10 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-
004>008-013>015-022.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ001-002-004>008-013>015-022.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-009-016-
017-023-024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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