640
FXUS63 KFGF 252154
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
354 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE AND WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS, WITH A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKING
UPSTREAM, A WEAK PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN NORTHERN
AB/SK, MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND BRING LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD
HAZARDOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EVENTUALLY TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH BEHIND A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S PASSAGE TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR
WARNING-CRITERIA COLD CONDITIONS OF -40F OR COLDER. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADVISORY-CRITERIA
COLD CONDITIONS BETWEEN -30F AND -40F EVERY EVENING/EARLY
MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS WE'VE
JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WEEKEND.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
EMANATING OUT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AS COMPACT UPPER
RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS IS
ALSO A RESULT OF WEAK PACIFIC JET WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
CONTENT NOSING INTO THIS REGION. ENSEMBLES ALLOW COMPACT,
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT TO EMANATE FROM THIS PACIFIC
JET INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. ONE OR MORE OF THESE
WAVES MAY INFLUENCE OUR AREA WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
WHICH WAVE MAY BRING THESE CONDITIONS, IF ANY. THERE CONTINUES
TO ALSO BE SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLES IN A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN MB, WESTERN ON, INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION. THIS MAY ALSO BRING ITS OWN PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE TRANSIENT/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
..HAZARDOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
CHOSE TO EXTEND THE EXTREME COLD WARNING WITHIN NORTHWEST MN
BASED ON HIGH PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 80% OF WIND CHILLS
-40F OR COLDER WITHIN THE REFS AND HREF GUIDANCE SUITES. DESPITE
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT, THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL INTO
THE TWENTIES BELOW ZERO IN NORTHWEST MN CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO TONIGHT WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH AN INCREASING BREEZE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE TWENTIES BELOW ZERO AND
A BREEZE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRIVE WIND CHILL
VALUES WELL INTO THE 40S BELOW ZERO THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 30 TO
40 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT TO AVIATION WITHIN THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH
18Z MONDAY IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AFTER 12Z, LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 40-50KT, INTRODUCING LLWS
AT SITES LIKE KDVL, KFAR, AND KBJI.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN LIGHT BETWEEN 5-10KT SHIFTING
FROM NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. WHEN TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY, WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 10-20KT, GUSTING TO 27KT
AT KDVL.
OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUDS AFTER 09Z, STILL REMAINING VFR.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY, LIGHT SNOW AND SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
ENTER THE FORECAST AT SEVERAL SITES. THIS MAY BRING LOWERED
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM LIGHT SNOW, GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR TO MVFR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
004>009-013>017-022-023.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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