463
FXUS63 KFGF 262031
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
231 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS, AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO, THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MIDDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY TO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, THE RED RIVER
VALLEY, AND INTO MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS
FROM SHARP AND SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, AT TIMES TO NEAR
BLIZZARD IN OPEN COUNTRY UNDER HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLL (HCR) CLOUDS ARE VIEWABLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY (NICELY ON BLOWING SNOW RGB). THESE HCRS ARE
HOUSING HEAVY SNOW RATES CREATING BRIEF INSTANCES OF NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, EVEN IN URBAN AND SHELTERED AREAS .
OUTSIDE OF HCRS, BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE MORE
CONSTRAINED TO OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS, WITH VISIBILITY NOT AS
SHARPLY REDUCED AS WITHIN THE HCRS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BE INTO THIS EVENING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE SHARP AND
SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 BELOW
ZERO TO 35 BELOW ZERO RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS FOR SKY COVER, WINDS,
AND TEMPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THIS WEEK, WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
TEMPORARILY RETREATING SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA,
PRIMARILY NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. SOUTH WINDS
PREVAIL EARLY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST, THEN NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GENERALLY QUIET, BUT COLD
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE CONVERGING ON A MORE ACTIVE
WEEKEND AHEAD, WITH PRECIP CHANCES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME, CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS RATHER LOW; HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
..HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING
WINDS THIS MORNING ARE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RISING, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
TIME WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING, WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO HEADING INTO MIDDAY.
..REDUCED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE SAME SHORTWAVE THAT BRINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST, THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WILL SUPPORT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY WHERE NEW SNOW
FALLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS IN THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, WHERE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO 1 MILE ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
AVIATION IMPACTS, AT TIMES HIGH IMPACT, WITHIN THIS TAF PERIOD
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY ARE FORECAST. THIS IS MAINLY TIED TO SHARP
AND SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW AT ALL SITES. VISIBILITY LESS THAN
1/4SM ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES AT ALL SITES, BUT MORE ON A MORE
INTERMITTENT TIME-SCALE. OTHERWISE, VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-5SM IS
FORECAST, LOWEST RESIDING AT KDVL, KGFK, AND KTVF.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHLY IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS IS VERY LOW WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF THESE, PARTICULARLY HOW LONG THEY MAY
LINGER. THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS LINGER AT
KTVF, KGFK, AND KBJI BEYOND 00Z COMPARED TO KGFK AND KDVL. IT IS
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 09Z.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-35KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z, WITH
15-30KT GUSTS LINGERING BETWEEN 00Z-09Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ON WHETHER OR NOT GUSTS TO 35KT WILL ACCOMPANY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER 00Z.
BY 12Z, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MORE STEADY AT AROUND 10-15KT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ006>008-015-016-027-054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028-029-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001-002-004-007.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...CJ
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