234
FXUS63 KFGF 262057
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA, THE RED RIVER VALLEY, AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SUDDEN AND SHARP REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED, IMPACTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE AND WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH A WELL MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
WITHIN THIS FLOW, THERE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
TREKKING THROUGH ND AND MN TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
HELPING SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA, BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS LEADING TO AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SUDDEN AND
SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY WITHIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND, THE
RED RIVER VALLEY, AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING (MORE DETAILS BELOW).
LINGERING BREEZY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS INTO
THE LOW 30S BELOW ZERO FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
WIND CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE HAVING TEMPERATURES TRENDED WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
WEEKEND, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR ADVISORY- CRITERIA COLD CONDITIONS BETWEEN -30F AND -40F
EVERY EVENING/EARLY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH
WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
EMANATING OUT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AS COMPACT UPPER
RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. WITHIN
THIS FLOW, ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY INFLUENCE OUR AREA
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHICH WAVE MAY BRING THESE
CONDITIONS, IF ANY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS
INFLUENCE FROM UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR EAST, IN PLACE OF UPPER
RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS WOULD
PROMOTE FURTHER WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO AROUND AVERAGE
TO PERHAPS ABOVE AVERAGE.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE TRANSIENT/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
..TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, THE RED RIVER
VALLEY, AND INTO MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS
FROM SHARP AND SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, AT TIMES TO NEAR
BLIZZARD IN OPEN COUNTRY UNDER HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLL (HCR) CLOUDS ARE VIEWABLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY (NICELY ON BLOWING SNOW RGB). THESE HCRS ARE
HOUSING HEAVY SNOW RATES CREATING BRIEF INSTANCES OF NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, EVEN IN URBAN AND SHELTERED AREAS. OUTSIDE
OF HCRS, BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE MORE CONSTRAINED TO
OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS, WITH
VISIBILITY NOT AS SHARPLY REDUCED AS WITHIN THE HCRS AND MORE
WITHIN THE HALF MILE TO ONE MILE RANGE.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BE INTO THIS EVENING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE SHARP AND
SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
AVIATION IMPACTS, AT TIMES HIGH IMPACT, WITHIN THIS TAF PERIOD
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY ARE FORECAST. THIS IS MAINLY TIED TO SHARP
AND SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW AT ALL SITES. VISIBILITY LESS THAN
1/4SM ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES AT ALL SITES, BUT MORE ON A MORE
INTERMITTENT TIME-SCALE. OTHERWISE, VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-5SM IS
FORECAST, LOWEST RESIDING AT KDVL, KGFK, AND KTVF.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHLY IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS IS VERY LOW WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF THESE, PARTICULARLY HOW LONG THEY MAY
LINGER. THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS LINGER AT
KTVF, KGFK, AND KBJI BEYOND 00Z COMPARED TO KGFK AND KDVL. IT IS
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 09Z.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-35KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z, WITH
15-30KT GUSTS LINGERING BETWEEN 00Z-09Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ON WHETHER OR NOT GUSTS TO 35KT WILL ACCOMPANY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER 00Z.
BY 12Z, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MORE STEADY AT AROUND 10-15KT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ006>008-015-016-027-054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028-029-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001-002-004-007.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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