946
FXUS63 KFGF 270533
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA, THE RED RIVER VALLEY, AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SUDDEN AND SHARP REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED, IMPACTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AN ENHANCED LINE OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH, SLOWLY BECOMING WEAKER AS TIME PROGRESSES.
VISIBILITY WITHIN THIS LINE COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE
BRIEFLY AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
WHILE POOR CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED PER
WEBCAMS AND MESONET OBS THERE REMAINS ENOUGH ONGOING IMPACTS
TOO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT LEAST FOR THE
TIME BEING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE AND WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH A WELL MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
WITHIN THIS FLOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TREKKING
THROUGH ND AND MN TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWEEPING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS LEADING TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SUDDEN AND SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
WITHIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND, THE RED RIVER VALLEY, AND INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (MORE DETAILS BELOW).
LINGERING BREEZY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS INTO
THE LOW 30S BELOW ZERO FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
WIND CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HAVING TEMPERATURES
TRENDED WARMER COMPARED TO LAST WEEKEND, BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONDITIONS MEETING
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA BETWEEN -30F AND -40F EVERY
EVENING/EARLY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH
WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
EMANATING OUT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AS COMPACT UPPER
RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. WITHIN
THIS FLOW, ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY INFLUENCE OUR AREA
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHICH WAVE MAY BRING THESE
CONDITIONS, IF ANY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LESS INFLUENCE FROM UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR EAST, IN
PLACE OF UPPER RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PROMOTE A FURTHER WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND AVERAGE OR PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.
..TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, THE RED RIVER
VALLEY, AND MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS IMPACTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH
SHARP AND SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, AT TIMES TO WHITEOUTS
IN THE OPEN COUNTRY UNDER HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLL (HCR) CLOUDS ARE VIEWABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
(NICELY ON BLOWING SNOW RGB). THESE HCRS ARE HOUSING HEAVY SNOW
RATES CREATING BRIEF INSTANCES OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, EVEN
IN URBAN AND SHELTERED AREAS. OUTSIDE OF HCRS, BLOWING SNOW AND
DRIFTING SNOW ARE MORE CONSTRAINED TO OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS, WITH VISIBILITY NOT AS SHARPLY
REDUCED AS WITHIN THE HCRS AND MORE WITHIN THE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE RANGE OUTSIDE HCRS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BE INTO THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE SHARP AND SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KFAR AS CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT BY AROUND 07Z TO
08Z, WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, CATEGORIES INTERMITTENTLY GO
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, AS WELL
AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AS LOW AS 1100 FEET. OVERALL,
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS GUSTY BY
13Z IN MOST AREAS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...LYNCH
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