038
FXUS63 KFGF 280925
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS EACH OVERNIGHT
INTO MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY BETWEEN 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DEFINED BY WESTERN RIDGING AND DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE H5 LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY BECOMES ELONGATED LATER THIS WEEK AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, BRINGING
A SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN
RIDGE TO SLIDE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
TRANSIENT PRECIP OPPORTUNITIES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAS BEEN WELL REPRESENTED BY MANY OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
SUITES FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH GROWING CONSENSUS REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BECOME MORE
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS THIS WEEK
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING IN THE 30S BELOW ZERO TO NEAR
40 BELOW ZERO. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING COULD BRING WIND CHILLS
AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR ARRIVING LATE
THURSDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
..POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER THAT COULD IMPACT THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOW IS SUPPORTED STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OR MORE SNOW IS
JUST UNDER 60 PERCENT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE SUPPORTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, CURRENT GUIDANCE IS LIMITED WITH
REGARDS TO MIXING POTENTIAL IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HEADING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DISTANCE FROM THE UPPER LOW, WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
LOW AVIATION IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BUT
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ006>008-015-026-054.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-
002-004-005-007-008-013>015-022.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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