132
FXUS63 KFGF 021716
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1116 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS FROM A WINTRY MIX
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTER IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. PREDICTABILITY IN IMPACTS REMAINS VERY LOW BEYOND
FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST/ANTICIPATED IMPACTS THROUGH MID
WEEK, AS THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES NORTH TO SOUTH, BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING FOR HIGHS DAILY AND ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS TO REACH 60F.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE IS A MORE CONSISTENT
EVOLUTION IN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN AS TROUGHING BUILDS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. THE
PATTERN BEYOND THIS WEEKEND STILL SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL TROUGHS,
BUT THERE REMAINS LARGER SPREAD WITHIN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL LATE WEEK: THE TROUGH LATE THIS WEEK IS SHOWN
TO HAVE A SPLIT IN THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY JET REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
THE WEAKER NORTHERN TRACK REMAINS NEAR SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
SPLIT IN FLOW HAPPENS TO LINE UP OVER OUR CWA AND LEADS TO LESS
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE TRENDS SUPPORTING AT LEAST LIGHT QPF OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOIST SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BRINGS STRONGER WAA NORTHWARD AND INITIALLY
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. THIS COULD COMPLICATE P-TYPE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVING WITH
THE NORTHERN WAVE UNDERCUTS THIS WARM LAYER AND ALLOWS FOR A
WINTRY MIX AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
NBM PROBS REFLECT THIS WITH 20% PROBS FOR AT LEAST 0.01" OF ICE
ACCUMULATION MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MN. THESE IMPACTS AT THIS RANGE (DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILE EVOLUTION) IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
(INTERACTION OF TWO WAVES IN SPLIT FLOW) NATURALLY CARRY A LOWER
PREDICTABILITY HORIZON. IT IS STILL 5 DAYS OUT, BUT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/SIGNAL IS AT LEAST CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO START
MONITORING THAT PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVE H5
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG NORTHWEST FLOW. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HEADING INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE FLOW AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS. WARMER TEMPS RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY, ALLOWING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200, GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S.
A RANGE OF POTENTIAL FORECAST SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD, AS ZONAL FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A
LARGE AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACTUALLY BECOMES, WITH SOME MEMBERS HANGING ONTO
ZONAL FLOW WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. IN EITHER CASE, THERE IS A SIGNAL
IN A PATTERN CHANGE AND A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD; HOWEVER, DETAILS
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON SEVERAL FACTORS THAT ARE YET TO BE
RESOLVED IN SYNOPTIC MODELS. AT THIS TIME, OVERALL
PREDICTABILITY IS VERY LOW, WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND/OR UPPER
MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WE HAVE A FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING STRATUS AND FOG TO THE REGION. THE
QUESTION IS: WHICH ONE WILL IT BE? AT LEAST UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL THIS FRONT ARRIVES. AS IT DOES,
CEILINGS WILL BE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY LOW TO AT LEAST IFR,
WITH SOME SIGNALS TO PUSH INTO LIFR. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN TANDEM WITH THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERITY IS
LOW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS THE SUN RISES AND MIXING IMPROVES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN AND SUSTAINED BELOW 10 KNOTS, SO IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN LIMITED TO FOG/STRATUS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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