181
FXUS63 KFGF 031915
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
115 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS FROM A WINTRY MIX
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTER IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. PREDICTABILITY IN IMPACTS REMAINS VERY LOW BEYOND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ZONAL FLOW TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE RANGES
LARGE FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT REINFORCED
THE IDEA THAT WE TRULY ARE TEETERING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH TO NOT
EVEN THE TEENS IN THE FAR NORTH. AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR MORE FOG TO DEVELOP. AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN US AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE BULK OF THE FORCING
TO OUR NORTH, PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIMITED. PREDICTABILITY
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES, WITH OUR AREA REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW.
..FOG MIDWEEK
FOG BECAME A PROBLEM LAST NIGHT AS COOLER AIR FILTERED SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA OVER A FAIRLY WARM SNOWPACK. TONIGHT, WINDS FLIP AROUND, OUT
OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ADVECT WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE
FA. THIS SHOULD AID IN FOG FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE FOG IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS COOLER
AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD, LEADING TO A SIMILAR SITUATION AS WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH ALL THE CONTINUAL
EXCHANGING OF AIRMASSES, A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN SET UP OVER THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH, WHILE REMAINING STUCK IN THE
20S ACROSS THE NORTH. JUST AS WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES MAY VARY BY 10 DEGREES OR MORE IN LOCATIONS ONLY 10
OR 20 MILES APART. THIS MAKES THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
DIFFICULT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I94 TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 2, WITH THE
NBM SHOWING UP TO 20 DEGREE SPREADS BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES.
..WINTRY MIX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TRACKING MORE TO OUR NORTH, UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES
AROUND HOW MUCH FORCING WE ACTUALLY SEE TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION. WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES ALSO IN PLACE, A WINTRY MIX IS FAVORED OVER A
STRAIGHT SNOW EVENT. THE PROBABILITY FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS
IS 20%, WITH THIS PROBABILITY BEING DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY ICE.
..UNCERTAINTY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A STRONGER WAVE EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, UNCERTAINTY ONLY GROWS. FIRST,
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DISAGREE AROUND THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. A
LITTLE FASTER, AND IT MAY INTERACT/PHASE WITH THE FIRST WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IF IT WAITS A LITTLE
LONGER, THESE TWO SYSTEMS MAY NOT INTERACT AT ALL. SECOND,
ENSEMBLES SHOW DISAGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US. LESS RIDGING WOULD MEAN A LESS NORTH TRACK,
WHICH WOULD LOWER OVERALL IMPACTS FOR OUR FA. INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO UNKNOWN, WITH A LARGE PART OF THAT HINGING ON IF
THERE IS SOME SORT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES.
OVERALL, THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF WINTER IMPACTS.
BEYOND SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL/NORTHWESTERLY. AGAIN THOUGH - THERE ARE
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF EACH WAVE. THEREFORE,
WHILE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DOES LOOK TO BE IN STORE,
DETAILS REMAIN SLIM AS TO HOW CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE AT ANY ONE
EXACT LOCATION. CHECK BACK IN THE COMING DAYS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. FOG THIS MORNING HAS SLOWLY BEEN
LIFTING, BUT REMAINS IN PLACE AT SOME TERMINALS SUCH AS KTVF AND
KFAR. WHERE FOG HAS DISSIPATED, CEILINGS REMAIN LOW, IFR TO EVEN
LIFR AT TIMES. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON,
FLIRTING ON THE LINE OF IFR/MVFR. HOWEVER, ONCE THE SUN SETS,
FOG SHOULD FILL BACK IN, FIRST IN THE SOUTH AT KFAR, EXPANDING
NORTH WITH TIME. VISIBILITIES WILL TANK BACK TOWARDS AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS, WHICH WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A MORE STEADY SOUTHERLY
WIND WORKS TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR, AND ERODE THE FOG FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page