463
FXUS63 KFGF 042016
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
216 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG TODAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS FROM A WINTRY MIX
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTER IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. PREDICTABILITY IN IMPACTS REMAINS VERY LOW BEYOND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY THAT KEEPS ALTERNATING BETWEEN BEING
STATIONARY (YESTERDAY), A WARM FRONT (LAST NIGHT) AND A COLD
FRONT (SUCH AS IT WAS MONDAY NIGHT), CONTINUES TO MEANDER. THIS
MORNING, IT WAS ADVANCING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. CURRENTLY IT
APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED OR EVEN TAKING ON A SOUTHWARD/COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS BOUNDARY IS
KEEPING AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
OVER OUR FA, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 IN THE NORTH, TO THE LOW
50S IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO END THE WORK WEEK. AS WE
TRANSITION, SEVERAL WAVES WILL PROPAGATE THOUGH/NEAR THE FA,
BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END THE WEEK. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES BACK TO ZONAL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH, THE STRONGEST AT THE TAIL
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..FOG CONTINUES
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER, THEN COLDER,
THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO AREAS APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I94
AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. THIS HAS RESULTED IN FOG BOTH OF THE
PAST TWO NIGHTS, ADVECTING NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY
THE BOUNDARY IS PROPAGATING. FOG THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT ALONG US HIGHWAY 2 FROM DEVILS LAKE EAST THROUGH
GRAND FORKS, THEN OVER TOWARDS THIEF RIVER FALLS/CROOKSTON. THIS
PATCH OF FOG SHOULD START TO ADVECT SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY TAKES
ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET, FOG SHOULD ALSO EXPAND IN COVERAGE, WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. THURSDAY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT, AS THE
BOUNDARY, NOW TRACKING BACK TO THE NORTH, WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD FOG TO AREAS NORTH OF I94. THIS FOG DOES NOT LOOK TO
REALLY CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY, A GOOD PUSH OF CAA
BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLEAR
OUT THE FOG FROM WEST TO EAST.
..THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PRECIPITATION
A WAVE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WAA AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT OVER THE FA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINS IN CANADA (AND THUS SO SHOULD THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION), THERE ARE STILL TWO PERIODS OF CONCERN. THE
FIRST IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. INCREASING
ASCENT, AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOT
JUST FOG, BUT ALSO DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING, WHICH MAKES DETERMINING POTENTIAL IMPACTS TRICKY. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SECOND, AS THE LOWS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BREAK OUT. HOW WIDESPREAD THIS BECOMES IS
UNCERTAIN, WITH DIFFERENT MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SCENARIOS.
HOWEVER, ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IS THAT TEMPERATURES WITHIN
SOUNDING PROFILES WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN DETERMINING
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FREEZING
RAIN AS THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE, WHICH MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT, BUT THIS WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEING BELOW FREEZING FOR ICING IMPACTS. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF MEETING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA,
WITH POTENTIAL ICING AS THE DRIVING FACTOR.
..THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHILE THE CANADIAN
AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE FURTHER SOUTH/WEAKER. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE OUR SOUTHERN FA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE/IF ANY WILL OCCUR. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW BRINGS A SURGE OF WARMER PACIFIC
AIR. A FEW WEAK WAVES ARE SHOWN BY VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY
IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN EACH FEATURES
PLACEMENT/TIMING/STRENGTH. THERE IS BROADER AGREEMENT IN A
LARGER SYSTEM WITHIN OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL
SCENARIOS REGARDING THE SYSTEMS FINAL EVOLUTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOG, LOW VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS WILL ALL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR. FZFG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AT KDVL, KTVF AND
KGFK THIS MORNING. PREVAILING TO PERIODS OF FZFG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FZFG IMPROVES AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN AT IFR. FURTHER SOUTH, KFAR AND KBJI, WHERE ITS
CURRENTLY VFR, WILL SEE IFR TO LIFR FILL BACK IN AFTER SUNSET.
THIS IFR/LIFR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD (POTENTIALLY EVEN LONGER AT SOME TERMINALS), AS FOG WILL
BE SLOW TO BURN OFF/CLEAR OUT. VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS
PERSISTENT PATTERN OF LIFR/IFR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ014>016-026-027-029-030-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-
007-008-013-014.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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