274
FXUS63 KFGF 072133
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ATTACHED WARM FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY INCREASING TO ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVERCOMES RADIATIONAL PROCESSES FROM THE CURRENT
SNOWPACK. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING, WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BRINGING A SWATH OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING AND
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN THANKS TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN DEPENDING ON THE
VARIABILITY OF TEMPERATURE PROFILES. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AS ACCUMULATING SNOW IS VERY UNLIKELY AND RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.01-0.05".
SNOWPACK EROSION CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW ARISE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN WITH ELEVATED 500MB FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE VERY HIGH MODEL
DISPERSION IN TRAJECTORY OF THE FLOW.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WITH THE CURRENT WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE DO
BEGIN TO TURN OUR ATTENTION TO FIRE WEATHER. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS IN WINDS WITH A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WILL
EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
APPROACHING 35-40 MPH. FOR TODAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER SUNSET. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 50% IN REGIONS WITHOUT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOWPACK. BASED ON SATELLITE, THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A
WEST TO EAST LINE OF VALLEY CITY TO PARK RAPIDS AND ALL POINTS
SOUTHWARD. THE WARMEST SPOTS TOMORROW COULD FALL AS LOW AS THE
30S. WITH THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW,
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ARISE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
AS ERC VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 40-60% IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW BASED ON NRCC PERCENTILE PLOTS AND HRB VALUES
SIT AT 30.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THINNING OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AFTER THIS OCCURS WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
GUSTS MAY MAX OUT THIS EVENING AROUND 20-30 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AND FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE GREATEST NORTH OF ALL OF OUR TAF SITES, SO
IT WASN'T ADDED TO THIS ISSUANCE. REGARDLESS, BECAUSE OF THE
WARM TEMPERATURES, AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE VERY LOW AND
GENERALLY RESTRICTED TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. THIS
SHOULD IMPROVE PRIOR TO 12Z, GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...PERROUX
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