181
FXUS63 KFGF 072344
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
544 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ATTACHED WARM FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY INCREASING TO ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVERCOMES RADIATIONAL PROCESSES FROM THE CURRENT
SNOWPACK. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING, WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BRINGING A SWATH OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING AND
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN THANKS TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN DEPENDING ON THE
VARIABILITY OF TEMPERATURE PROFILES. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AS ACCUMULATING SNOW IS VERY UNLIKELY AND RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.01-0.05".
SNOWPACK EROSION CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW ARISE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN WITH ELEVATED 500MB FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE VERY HIGH MODEL
DISPERSION IN TRAJECTORY OF THE FLOW.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WITH THE CURRENT WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE DO
BEGIN TO TURN OUR ATTENTION TO FIRE WEATHER. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS IN WINDS WITH A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WILL
EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
APPROACHING 35-40 MPH. FOR TODAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER SUNSET. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 50% IN REGIONS WITHOUT ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOWPACK. BASED ON SATELLITE, THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A
WEST TO EAST LINE OF VALLEY CITY TO PARK RAPIDS AND ALL POINTS
SOUTHWARD. THE WARMEST SPOTS TOMORROW COULD FALL AS LOW AS THE
30S. WITH THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW,
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ARISE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
AS ERC VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-40% IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW BASED ON NRCC PERCENTILE PLOTS AND HRB VALUES
SIT AT 30.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH CLOUD COVER ABOVE 10000 FT
FOR THE MOST PART. SOME LIGHT RAIN COMING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES,
ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A PROB30 AT KBJI LATER THIS EVENING AS
CAMS SHOW AN INTENSIFICATION TREND AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND
MOVES EAST. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT SOME
FOG, WITH AROUND 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN HALF
A MILE IN SOME SPOT ACCORDING TO THE HREF. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FIRST SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY, AM NOT CONFIDENT IN
ANY FOG FORMATION SO WILL LEAVE OUT UNLESS WE GET SOME FORMING
UPSTREAM THAT ADVECTS INTO OUR AREA. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN AS SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STARTS
TO LOSE GUSTS THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THEN
WESTERLY AND GUSTING BACK UP. WINDS AT 2-3000 FT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WINDS, SO LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...JR
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