014
FXUS63 KFGF 082050 CCA
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
145 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE LOW EXISTS ONCE MORE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ATTACHED WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF BISMARCK AT
THIS POINT IN TIME. AN ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
DIFFERENTIAL SNOW COVER EXISTS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN DOWN
THROUGH THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY. ALOFT, LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
ALONG WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD AS THIS OCCURS, BRINGING HIGHS GENERALLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF I-94 WITH GENERALLY
40S-50S NORTH.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST, A MAIN SWEEPING
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND IT THIS EVENING. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO THE
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TOMORROW,
EXPECT RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO REPLACE TODAYS NICE
DAY.
..EXTENDED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS. WE REMAIN SITUATED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW WITH 500MB FLOW APPROACHING 100 KNOTS.
THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO OUR FREQUENT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WE ARE STUCK IN THIS
PATTERN BECAUSE OF A LOW OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY
ROTATING ON ITS OWN. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY KICK OUT NORTHEASTWARD, BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT MORE OF
THESE QUICK MOVING EVENTS AND OSCILLATIONS IN TEMPERATURE.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER TODAY WILL BE TUESDAY
AS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WORKS EASTWARD EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ISN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT THE
STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING SHOULD CREATE SOME UNORGANIZED BANDING
OF SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTH. DUE TO THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF
THIS, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THIS, BUT IT
DOES APPEAR LIKE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. MOISTURE CONTENT IS FAIRLY LIGHT
SO THE REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE AREAS RECEIVING
UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW, BUT THE MOST LIKELY RANGE IS BETWEEN 0
AND 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. IF SYNOPTIC FORCING DOES IMPROVE,
HOWEVER, THEN THESE TOTALS COULD GO UP. REGARDLESS OF THIS, IT
IS NOT A GUARANTEE THAT AREAS WILL RECEIVE SNOW GIVEN THE
MESOSCALE BANDING NATURE AS STATED ABOVE, SO STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.
WE FINALLY START TO SEE THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST KICK
OUT, WHICH WILL FORCE RIDGING TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THIS
BRINGS WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO
DEEPEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS BRINGS THE THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGION AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LOW AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE, BUT ANY BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO COME FROM EITHER FALLING SNOW
(LOW PREDICTABILITY) OR SNOW ON THE GROUND WHICH SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY CRUSTED OVER SO THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY TO CAUSE ANY
ISSUES AS WELL. AS SUCH, THE PROBABILITY FOR WARNING TYPE
IMPACTS IS VERY LOW WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS,
WHICH SHOULD MAINLY ARISE FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW.
FINALLY, THERE IS A STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT FOR A SYSTEM NEXT
WEEKEND BUT WITH VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY IN IMPACTS BASED ON
MODEL SPREAD IN LOCATION. RIGHT NOW, STAY TUNED AS THIS ONE
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT BASED ON
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN, WHICH DOES CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACTS FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL COME FROM
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PERIODIC WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON, WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUALLY
FALLING CEILINGS, BUT WILL MAINTAIN VFR STATUS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. IMPACTS FROM RAIN SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AND ISOLATED TO
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR. SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES
AND CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY, BUT AGAIN AVIATION IMPACTS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED. AROUND THIS TIME FRAME, A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ALL OF THIS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AND NO AVIATION
IMPACTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...PERROUX
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