274
FXUS63 KFGF 251210
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
710 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PROBABILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS IS 10 PERCENT.
- DRYING FUELS MAY INTERMITTENTLY SUPPORT LOW END FIRE DANGER
THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS WITH NBM. MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTH,
MORE SO THAN PREV FCST. COLD FRONT NEAR DVL-GFK THEN NORTHWEST
TOWARD ROSEAU AT 12Z.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
00Z MODEL RUNS REALLY NOT DOING VERY WELL IN MY OPINION WITH
ACTIVITY IN CANADA AND IN NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN UPPER WAVE IS
MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW IN FAR NORTHWEST
MN. ANOTHER WAVE IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHWEAN. BEHIND THE FIRST
LOW THERE IS COLDER AIR WITH A NORTHEAST WIND IN MANITOBA AND A
NORTH WIND IN FAR NORTHERN ND AT 08Z. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS TAKE COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD TODAY TO AROUND GRAND FORKS
WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 40S THIS AFTN...WITH 30S FARTHER
NORTH AND 60S FAR SOUTH. THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU CENTRAL ND AND DID INCLUDE
SOME LOW POPS FOR -RA IN THAT AREA FROM COOPERSTOWN TO FARGO FOR
THIS 11Z-13Z PERIOD.
FOR TONIGHT POSITION OF WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOES VARY
FROM MORE NORTH POSITION IN CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL ND INTO MN FROM
THE SHORT TERM MODELS, TO MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION FROM MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND AI MODELS. CONSENSUS FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES
WAS TO LEAN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLN. THIS DOES BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN EASTWARD, ESP OVERNIGHT THRU SOUTH 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA
INTO MN. SOME RISK OF WINTRY MIX ON NORTH EDGE OF WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE BUT DUE TO LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF THIS PRECIPITATION AREA AND SFC TEMPS CHANCES FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS REMAIN 10 PERCENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC AMPLIFICATIONS AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND FINALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE CWA SOUTH AND BRING TEMPS IN MOST
AREAS DOWN BELOW NORMAL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE COMING WORK WEEK, WITH HEIGHTS
RISING BACK UP AND A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, BUT PREDICTABILITY IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
..SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT INTO WEDNESDAY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. STILL AROUND A 20 DEGREE A TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LANGDON AND FERGUS FALLS THANKS TO SNOW
COVER. THE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SHARPER TOMORROW AS THE COOLER
AIR IN CANADA STARTS TO SINK BACK TO THE SOUTH, AND SURFACE
WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY. A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE SD BORDER COULD GET CLOSE TO 70
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHILE COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
REMAIN IN THE 30S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH FINALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO MANITOBA AND
ONTARIO.
..MIXED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAK LEAD
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE CAMS HOWEVER, ARE LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND DO NOT HAVE MUCH REACHING THE GROUND. BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES DOWN, WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS POSSIBLE. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOWS SOME MIX OF RAIN,
FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE
HIGHER QPF ARE FOR RAIN, AND WHILE THE PROBABILISTIC WSSI DOES
SHOW A 50-50 SHOT FOR SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION, THE CHANCES FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS ARE STILL VERY LOW, AROUND 10 PERCENT.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 20 PERCENT NEAR THE RED LAKES,
ALTHOUGH FORTUNATELY THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15
MPH IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND, BUT DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO 40 PERCENT. COOLER AND SOME MOISTURE ON THURSDAY, BUT
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND SOME LOCATIONS COULD DROP TO 30
PERCENT OR LOWER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER
AS FUELS DRY OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
COLD FRONT AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS LOCATED DVL-GFK AT
12Z AND WILL PUSH SOUTH. HOW FAST THE NORTH WIND GETS INTO FARGO
IS QUESTIONABLE THOUGH AS AT SOME POINT IT WILL RUN INTO
RESISTANCE AS SOUTH WIND AT THE SFC MAINTAINS AHEAD OF TONIGHTS
WAVE. IFR CIGS FAR NORTH LOOK TO DROP SOUTH AND MAY REACH DVL-
GFK BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO MORE MVFR DECK FOR MID MORNING AND
AFTER. VFR ANTICIPATED TODAY FAR-BJI...WITH TVF ON THE EDGE OF
MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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