677
FXUS63 KFGF 251912
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
212 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PROBABILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS IS 30 PERCENT.
- DRYING FUELS MAY INTERMITTENTLY SUPPORT LOW END FIRE DANGER
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FAST, NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES
MOVES THROUGH MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TONIGHT, HELPING TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE REST
OF THE WAY THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TRANSITION, WITH
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY.
STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW EXACTLY
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE ROCKIES OR PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK, BUT OVERALL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
..WINTRY MIX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 60S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN, MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN TIER HAS STAYED IN THE
30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE
TONIGHT, AND MANY AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING THIS
EVENING, MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200. SHOULD START OUT
AS RAIN AS EVEN WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE SURFACE AND ROAD
TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO COOL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUT AS
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THEN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT START TO COOL,
COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IN SOME AREAS.
NBM HAS AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ICING. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL BE GIVEN THE CURRENTLY
VERY WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE IN MOST OF OUR COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FOR ANY
HEADLINES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND
AFTER OUR COOL DOWN DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK,
TEMPERATURES START TO RECOVER AND WILL BE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME HIGHER
DEW POINTS IN, THEY WILL NOT RISE AS FAST AS TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
SOME AREAS. AT THIS POINT, WINDS DO NOT SEEM LIKE THEY WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT COULD GET
CLOSE. WILL MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BUT NOT OTHER
MESSAGING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
SOME IFR CEILINGS STARTING TO COME INTO NORTHEASTERN ND AS COLD
AIR COMES DOWN FROM CANADA. KDVL AND KGFK CURRENTLY IFR BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. KFAR AND THE MN
AIRPORTS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY VFR SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME BRIEF SHIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT THEN
BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL DROP A
BIT LATER TONIGHT, BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS IN SOME PLACES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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