210
FXUS63 KFGF 260830
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHEAST
ND INTO MN EARLY THIS THURSDAY.
- DRYING FUELS MAY INTERMITTENTLY SUPPORT LOW END FIRE DANGER
THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN MOVED THRU THE FARGO
AREA FROM VALLEY CITY AND EXTENDED INTO TRAIL, STEELE AND
GRIGGS. IT HAS NOW DIMINISHED AS IT MOVED EAST QUICKLY THRU
DETROIT LAKES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS ON RADAR YET WEST OF FARGO AND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
DROPPING STILL WILL HOLD ON TO ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED AROUND 2
AM. ROAD TEMPS SUGGEST ABOVE 32F BUT WAS CONCERNRED AREA OF
MODERATE FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME TO GIVE ICY CONDITIONS TO
NON-TREATED SURFACE STREETS, RURAL HIGHWAYS AND SUCH. WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING SO QUICKLY EAST MAY WELL BE ABLE TO CANCEL
ADVISORY EARLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FAST, NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES
MOVES THROUGH MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TONIGHT, HELPING TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE REST
OF THE WAY THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TRANSITION, WITH
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY.
STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW EXACTLY
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE ROCKIES OR PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK, BUT OVERALL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
..WINTRY MIX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 60S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN, MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN TIER HAS STAYED IN THE
30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE
TONIGHT, AND MANY AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING THIS
EVENING, MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200. SHOULD START OUT
AS RAIN AS EVEN WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE SURFACE AND ROAD
TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO COOL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUT AS
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THEN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT START TO COOL,
COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IN SOME AREAS.
NBM HAS AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ICING. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL BE GIVEN THE CURRENTLY
VERY WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE IN MOST OF OUR COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FOR ANY
HEADLINES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND
AFTER OUR COOL DOWN DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK,
TEMPERATURES START TO RECOVER AND WILL BE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME HIGHER
DEW POINTS IN, THEY WILL NOT RISE AS FAST AS TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
SOME AREAS. AT THIS POINT, WINDS DO NOT SEEM LIKE THEY WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT COULD GET
CLOSE. WILL MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BUT NOT OTHER
MESSAGING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
IFR CEILINGS HAVE PERSISTED AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN AND WHILE GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO
12Z THURSDAY. THE STRATUS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
NORTHWEST MN EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCES VFR WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A RESULT OF TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30KT DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD THURSDAY. THESE WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE BELOW 12KT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
THURSDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND
EVENTUALLY WEST CENTRAL MN. FARTHER NORTH COVERAGE MAY REMAIN
LOWER WITH VIRGA OR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MORE COMMON. PREVAILING
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW,
HOWEVER THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR WITHIN THE REGION WHERE
BRIEF/LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCURING AS THIS ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONS OUT OF THE REGION BEFORE 10Z (30% CHANCE FOR IMPACTS
AT TAF SITES).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ028>030-038-039.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ002-
003-022.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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