535
FXUS63 KFGF 261121
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
621 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT WINTRY MIX THRU MID MORNING, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING.
- DRYING FUELS MAY INTERMITTENTLY SUPPORT LOW END FIRE DANGER
THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
UPDATE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
BASED ON DIMINISHING RADAR RETURNS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN HAS
DIMINISHED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
COORD WITH BIS AND ADDED FLURRIES TO NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NW MN
THRU MID MORNING. MOST AREAS ALONG THE BORDER FROM BOTTINEAU TO
WARROAD 5-10SM IN LIGHT SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN MOVED THRU THE FARGO
AREA FROM VALLEY CITY AND EXTENDED INTO TRAIL, STEELE AND
GRIGGS. IT HAS NOW DIMINISHED AS IT MOVED EAST QUICKLY THRU
DETROIT LAKES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS ON RADAR YET WEST OF FARGO AND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
DROPPING STILL WILL HOLD ON TO ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED AROUND 2
AM. ROAD TEMPS SUGGEST ABOVE 32F BUT WAS CONCERNRED AREA OF
MODERATE FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME TO GIVE ICY CONDITIONS TO
NON-TREATED SURFACE STREETS, RURAL HIGHWAYS AND SUCH. WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING SO QUICKLY EAST MAY WELL BE ABLE TO CANCEL
ADVISORY EARLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FAST, NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES
MOVES THROUGH MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TONIGHT, HELPING TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE REST
OF THE WAY THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TRANSITION, WITH
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY.
STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW EXACTLY
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE ROCKIES OR PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK, BUT OVERALL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
..WINTRY MIX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 60S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN, MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN TIER HAS STAYED IN THE
30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE
TONIGHT, AND MANY AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING THIS
EVENING, MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200. SHOULD START OUT
AS RAIN AS EVEN WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE SURFACE AND ROAD
TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO COOL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUT AS
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THEN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT START TO COOL,
COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IN SOME AREAS.
NBM HAS AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ICING. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL BE GIVEN THE CURRENTLY
VERY WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE IN MOST OF OUR COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FOR ANY
HEADLINES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND
AFTER OUR COOL DOWN DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK,
TEMPERATURES START TO RECOVER AND WILL BE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME HIGHER
DEW POINTS IN, THEY WILL NOT RISE AS FAST AS TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
SOME AREAS. AT THIS POINT, WINDS DO NOT SEEM LIKE THEY WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT COULD GET
CLOSE. WILL MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BUT NOT OTHER
MESSAGING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH TODAY WITH IMPROVING CLOUD CONDITIONS
WITH CLEARING ANTICIPATED NORTH TO SOUTH THRU THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE MIDDAY GOING SCATTERED ALONG HWY 2 AND MID AFTERNOON FARGO.
TIMING MAY BE ADJUSTED. NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KTS WITHIN
THE VALLEY TODAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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