446
FXUS63 KFGF 261721
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT WINTRY MIX THRU MID MORNING, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING.
- DRYING FUELS MAY INTERMITTENTLY SUPPORT LOW END FIRE DANGER
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FAST, NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES
MOVES THROUGH MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TONIGHT, HELPING TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE REST
OF THE WAY THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TRANSITION, WITH
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY.
STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW EXACTLY
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE ROCKIES OR PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK, BUT OVERALL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
..WINTRY MIX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 60S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN, MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN TIER HAS STAYED IN THE
30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE
TONIGHT, AND MANY AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING THIS
EVENING, MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200. SHOULD START OUT
AS RAIN AS EVEN WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE SURFACE AND ROAD
TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO COOL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUT AS
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THEN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT START TO COOL,
COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IN SOME AREAS.
NBM HAS AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ICING. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL BE GIVEN THE CURRENTLY
VERY WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE IN MOST OF OUR COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FOR ANY
HEADLINES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND
AFTER OUR COOL DOWN DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK,
TEMPERATURES START TO RECOVER AND WILL BE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME HIGHER
DEW POINTS IN, THEY WILL NOT RISE AS FAST AS TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
SOME AREAS. AT THIS POINT, WINDS DO NOT SEEM LIKE THEY WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT COULD GET
CLOSE. WILL MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BUT NOT OTHER
MESSAGING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING AT KFAR AND THE MN AIRPORTS, BUT CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE MORE NORTHERN SITES. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AT KTVF TO VFR, AND BY MID
AFTERNOON FOR KFAR AND KBJI. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS
MOST OF THE TAF SITES WILL GO BACK DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALSO,
BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE ANY VISIBILITY IMPACTS ON OUR
AIRPORTS AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THAT ARE
GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS IN SOME SPOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN BELOW 10 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, THEN PICK UP AGAIN A BIT
TO AROUND 15 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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