462
FXUS63 KFGF 271153
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRYING FUELS MAY INTERMITTENTLY SUPPORT LOW END FIRE DANGER
THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTS
NEXT WEEK, BUT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THRU THE OVERNIGHT ADJUSTED FLURRY AREA. CLEARING IS WORKING
INTO THE AREA, BUT POCKETS OF CLOUDS REMAIN UPSTREAM AND
PRODUCING A FEW FLAKES. FEW AREAS GOT UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH,
BUT SOME JUST A TRACE. MESSAGING REMAINS THE SAME INTO THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
CURRENTLY WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN MN TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW, BUT PROBABILITIES OF
ANYTHING MEASURABLE ARE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BUT THEN HEIGHTS START TO RISE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXACTLY
HOW WARM OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL GET IS IN QUESTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH BACK SOUTH AS EARLY AS SATURDAY.
STILL, WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE AT LEAST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS FIRE WEATHER COULD BE
AN ISSUE. FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. VARIATIONS BETWEEN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS, WITH A
QUARTER OF THE CLUSTERS SHOWING HIGHER HEIGHTS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
AND A MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK. EVEN WITH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
IMPACTS, THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD, SO THE PATTERN DOES SEEM TO BE
TAKING A MORE ACTIVE TURN.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND
WITH MOST OF THE SNOW GONE EXCEPT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES, FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WARM AIR PUSHES BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN THE COLD
FRONT COMING BACK DOWN A BIT FASTER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL MN LOOK TO BE STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD
DROP TO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE BUT
SOME SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AREA OF LOWEST RH ISN'T EXACTLY LINING UP WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS AT THIS POINT, AND OUR CHANCES OF GETTING BELOW 25 PERCENT
RH ARE ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS. COULD GET CLOSE
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH FOR A WATCH AT THIS POINT. WINDS ON SUNDAY DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS SATURDAY, BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LOCATIONS DROP TO
NEAR 25 PERCENT RH IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
LOTS OF CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN BETWEEN CLOUD PATCHES. SO WOULD
ANTICIPATE A VARIABLE SKY THIS MORNING BETWEEN SCT AND BKN.
EXCEPT FOR BJI CLOUD BASES ARE VFR IN THE 3500 TO 6000 FT AGL
RANGE. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN NW MN INTO THE AFTN BUT NOT A
SOLID CLOUD DECK. NW WINDS TODAY 10-20 KTS GUSTS 25 KTS OR SO IN
THE RRV. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING
WITH WINDS LIGHT AND TURNING SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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