784
FXUS63 KFGF 271942
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA ON
SATURDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA FROM 10AM THROUGH 7PM.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR RETREATS NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG, WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY, WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDOW FOR
STRONGER GUSTS (UP TO 40 MPH) WILL BE SOMEWHAT NARROW; HOWEVER 25-30
MPH GUSTS ARE SUPPORTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDAY THROUGH LATE
EVENING PERIOD. THESE WINDS, IN ADDITION TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES,
WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS IN MIND, A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THROUGH 7PM SATURDAY. FURTHER NORTH,
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SUNDAY BRINGS ADDITIONAL WARM
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY, THUS
LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING LOWER WIND POTENTIAL.
STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE SCENARIOS
THAT BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER PRECIPITATION TUESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF SOLUTIONS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM SHOWS UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE
PERIOD COVERING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AS
WELL AS AI SOLUTIONS, ARE IN SOMEWHAT STRONG AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL BE MUCH HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO IT IS WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ALL SITES EXPERIENCING AT LEAST INTERMITTENT LOWER
CEILINGS. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
ARE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST, THEN SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
LLWS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 25-30 KNOTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ052-
053.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ024-
027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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