378
FXUS63 KFGF 280756
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA ON
SATURDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA FROM 10AM THROUGH 7PM.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLYTUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
MINOR UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES AS WINTER IMPACTS MAY OCCUR MONDAY
AS WELL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOLUTIONS VARY BUT
UPDATED GRIDS REFLECT AN INCH OR SO FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
MATCHED UP WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS ON RH VALUES IN SE ND INTO MN
WHERE RH VALUES OF BELOW 25 PCT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID AFTN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO BEST OVERLAP OF WIND
WITH LOW RH WILL BE A PRETTY SHORT WINDOW MOST LIKELY LATE
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR RETREATS NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG, WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY, WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDOW FOR
STRONGER GUSTS (UP TO 40 MPH) WILL BE SOMEWHAT NARROW; HOWEVER 25-30
MPH GUSTS ARE SUPPORTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDAY THROUGH LATE
EVENING PERIOD. THESE WINDS, IN ADDITION TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES,
WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS IN MIND, A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THROUGH 7PM SATURDAY. FURTHER NORTH,
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SUNDAY BRINGS ADDITIONAL WARM
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY, THUS
LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING LOWER WIND POTENTIAL.
STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE SCENARIOS
THAT BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER PRECIPITATION TUESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF SOLUTIONS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM SHOWS UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE
PERIOD COVERING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AS
WELL AS AI SOLUTIONS, ARE IN SOMEWHAT STRONG AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL BE MUCH HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO IT IS WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO WIND AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
AS A JET WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OVERNIGHT, EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO DEVELOP FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED
AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT THE FURTHER
SOUTH YOU GO WITH FAR POTENTIALLY SEEING GUSTS EXCEED 35 KNOTS
AT TIMES. A FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WINDS SHIFT
TO MORE WESTERLY AND NORTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAINING ELEVATED SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL CLOCKWISE AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, MOSTLY BEING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AFTER
00Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ052-053.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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