635
FXUS63 KFGF 281829
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
129 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 7PM.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 2 AND LIGHT RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TO I-94. IMPACT POTENTIAL
IS HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER BOUNDS OF H5 RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO NEAR 60
DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AREAS WITH WARMER TEMPS WILL SEE
LOW RH VALUES, AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THUS CREATING NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WILL SUBSIDE AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
IS IN STORE ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE EAST. THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHERE RH VALUES COULD
BE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, ALBEIT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP BEING NORTH OF
I-94. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AS SHOWN IN THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 2,
WHICH INCREASES TO NEARLY 80 PERCENT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER H5 LOW IS SET TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS ON THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HAS
BEEN QUITE STRONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM; WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY BEING THE PTYPE. AT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA; HOWEVER, THERE
ARE A FEW SCENARIOS THAT BRING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH, ALLOWING
COLDER AIR TO FLOW FURTHER SOUTH AND FAVORING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE WIND SPEEDS
FALL, DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST, THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE LATE EVENING. CLOUD COVER REMAINS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ052-053.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ024-
027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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