821
FXUS63 KFGF 290008
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 2 AND LIGHT RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TO I-94. IMPACT POTENTIAL
IS HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
AS THE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
TRANSITIONED SOUTH OF THE REGION WINDS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS (WELL BELOW RFW CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS). RH VALUES HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING, THOUGH THERE ARE A
FEW LOCATIONS STILL HOVERING NEAR 25% IN FAR SOUTHEAST ND (WINDS
ARE LESS THAN 10 MPH AT THOSE SITES). THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS NO LONGER OCCURING OR EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER BOUNDS OF H5 RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO NEAR 60
DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AREAS WITH WARMER TEMPS WILL SEE
LOW RH VALUES, AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THUS CREATING NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WILL SUBSIDE AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
IS IN STORE ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE EAST. THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHERE RH VALUES COULD
BE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, ALBEIT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP BEING NORTH OF
I-94. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AS SHOWN IN THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 2,
WHICH INCREASES TO NEARLY 80 PERCENT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER H5 LOW IS SET TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS ON THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HAS
BEEN QUITE STRONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM; WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY BEING THE PTYPE. AT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA; HOWEVER, THERE
ARE A FEW SCENARIOS THAT BRING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH, ALLOWING
COLDER AIR TO FLOW FURTHER SOUTH AND FAVORING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN, WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER SURFACE LOW HAVE
SHIFTED SOUTH AND A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED INTO OUR REGION
RESULTING IN WINDS DECREASING AROUND OR BELOW 12KT AND SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WINDS EVENTUALLY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT
THE REST OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD AFTER SUNSET. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION KEEPING LOWER
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY, WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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