914
FXUS63 KFGF 291736
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON MONDAY. ADVISORY
IMPACTS 20 PERCENT CHANCE.
- LATE WEEK SYSTEM COULD BE STRONGER WITH WINTER IMPACTS
POSSIBLE. ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS CHANCE 40 PERCENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES VARY SHARPLY NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH 30S ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND 50S IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS. NO CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
FOR TODAY, DISCUSSED WITH MPX/DLH ABOUT ANY NEED FOR SPS FOR
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE RH
VALUES WILL BE 27-32 PCT THIS AFTN. CONSENSUS WAS THE LACK OF
WIND, 5 KTS, AND A BIT HIGHER RH THAN ON SATURDAY SHOULD PREVENT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS FROM REACH NEAR CRITICAL STAGE SO NO SPS WILL
BE ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER TODAY.
WINTER IMPACTS TAKE CENTER STAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AGAIN
LATE WEEK. LEFT NBM AND WPC DATA AS IS WITH NO CHANGES. FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW AND POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM FAR NW
ND EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. NOT ALL MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP
AS FAR SOUTH AS HWY 2, BUT ENOUGH DO SO LEFT NBM IDEA ALONE WITH
IS POPS DOWN TO HWY 2 AND A CHC OF FZRA IN THE GRIDS FOR PARTS
OF NE ND AND NORTHERN RRV 06Z-18Z PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
THERE YET FOR ANY ADVISORY HEADLINE, BUT COORD WITH BIS AND WE
BOTH FELT SPS FOR WINTRY MIX IS REASONABLE AND WILL BE ISSUED
THIS EARLY MORNING.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY SYSTEM COULD BE A PRETTY STRONG SYSTEM. 00Z
ECMWF STRONGER NOW THAN GFS AND SLOWER, CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN
GLOBAL IN EVENTUALLY TAKING UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER. SOME WINTER IMPACTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
RISK OF ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
AS THE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
TRANSITIONED SOUTH OF THE REGION WINDS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS (WELL BELOW RFW CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS). RH VALUES HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING, THOUGH THERE ARE A
FEW LOCATIONS STILL HOVERING NEAR 25% IN FAR SOUTHEAST ND (WINDS
ARE LESS THAN 10 MPH AT THOSE SITES). THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS NO LONGER OCCURING OR EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER BOUNDS OF H5 RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO NEAR 60
DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AREAS WITH WARMER TEMPS WILL SEE
LOW RH VALUES, AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THUS CREATING NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WILL SUBSIDE AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
IS IN STORE ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE EAST. THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHERE RH VALUES COULD
BE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, ALBEIT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP BEING NORTH OF
I-94. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AS SHOWN IN THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 2,
WHICH INCREASES TO NEARLY 80 PERCENT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER H5 LOW IS SET TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS ON THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HAS
BEEN QUITE STRONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM; WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY BEING THE PTYPE. AT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA; HOWEVER, THERE
ARE A FEW SCENARIOS THAT BRING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH, ALLOWING
COLDER AIR TO FLOW FURTHER SOUTH AND FAVORING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE HEADING
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE AREA, MAINLY
KDVL, KGFK AND KTVF. PTYPE COULD BE EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
MAINLY NORTH OF MOST TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH KDVL
SEEING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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