752
FXUS63 KFGF 300433
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON MONDAY. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS DUE TO LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL IMPACTS LATE THIS
WEEK. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH WARMER TEMPS PREVAIL ON MONDAY AS WAA
CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, TO THE LOW 60S IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SURGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, HOWEVER, AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, SUPPORT
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA; HOWEVER, AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH LOWER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DUE TO WINTRY MIX AND FREEZING RAIN. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS, MAINLY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THE LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE.
HEADING INTO MID WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH 30S AND 40S BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR WINTER IMPACTS. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW, THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE PTYPE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE TWO MAIN
SCENARIOS THAT ARE SUPPORTED IN CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ONE WITH THE LOW
TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE NORTHERN TRACK WOULD KEEP PTYPES
IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA MOSTLY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY WINTRY MIX. THE SOUTHERN TRACK, HOWEVER, BRINGS HEAVY SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD. BOTH SCENARIOS BRING MOISTURE, HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN
SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE IMPACTFUL FROM A WINTER WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE. ADDITIONALLY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE HIGH ON
BOTH THE APPROACH AND DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 40 PERCENT AGGREGATE CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY IMPACTS, WITH THE PROBS BEING LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN
TRACK AND MUCH HIGHER WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
AFTER 06Z LOW STRATUS (MVFR) OVERSPREADS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND
INCLUDING KDVL, WHILE VFR IS MORE LIKLEY TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND CLOSER
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTHWEST MN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE AT KDVL CURRENTLY IN THE
09-13Z PERIOD WITH LOWER CHANCES (30%) FOR FREEZING RAIN. KGFK
IS RIGHT ON THE LINE OF WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCE CHANCES AND
MVFR STRATUS TRACKS AND HAS A 30% FOR THOSE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX
DURING THAT PERIOD IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AFTER THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 9-13KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS THEN BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA JUST TO THE
NORTH AND A FRONTAL ZONE SITS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN KGFK AND
KFAR. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND A FRONT LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MVFR AND
IFR STRATUS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD MUCH MORE OF THE REGION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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