368
FXUS63 KFGF 020849
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
349 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH TODAY, ENDING THIS EVENING. 7 AM
THURSDAY TO 1 AM FRIDAY PERIOD SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES RRV AND EAST...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR BEMIDJI.
- THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST ROUND, BRINGING AN
80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 6 INCHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES THIS EARLY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW AREA IS
SPREADING NORTH ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF 500 MB UPPER WAVE WHICH IS
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. SO WILL EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW AREA WILL SPREAD NORTH TODAY. FOR SECOND SYSTEM MOST MODEL
DATA HAS FOCUSED NOW ON THAT AREA OF 6-12 INCHES FROM BISMARCK
AREA TO GRAND FORKS AND FARGO THEN TOWARD BEMIDJI. THAT SYSTEM
MAIN SNOW IS FOCUSED FOR THE AFTERNOON, AND MOST INTENSE 00Z TO
15Z SAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. H5 LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH AND INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. THIS
SYSTEM ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS IS
HAPPENING, A SECOND UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DIVING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, THEN INTO
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND LOW WILL DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
TRAVELS EAST ON FRIDAY, THEN OCCLUDE AND DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF
THIS SLOWDOWN AND INFLECTION WILL GREATLY IMPACT OVERALL SNOWFALL
EXPECTATIONS, AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPEED BACK UP AS IT
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
..FIRST ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BRING ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, BOTH IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THIS FIRST UPPER LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO BEMIDJI, WHERE THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE AMOUNTS ARE 2" TO 5" RESPECTIVELY. FURTHER NORTH, 1" TO
3" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM (ALSO 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES). TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW IS
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE DURING THE EVENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT FALL SLOWLY INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES, THEN WARM DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO
NEAR FREEZING.
..SECOND ROUND OF SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
LOOKING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SECOND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AS IT
OCCLUDES AND SLOWS DOWN SLIGHTLY. AS THIS INFLECTION OCCURS, A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE
OF THE LOW. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE
SECOND SYSTEM AS 1000MB TO 850MB MIXING RATIOS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 3-
4 G/KG RANGE AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES JUST EAST OF THE CWA. THIS,
ALONG WITH GOOD BANDING SUPPORT, WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 1+ INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE RESIDENCE TIME AS THE OCCLUSION HAPPENS,
AND WHETHER OR NOT THE OVERALL FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
IMPACTED. A STRONGER INFLECTION WILL ALLOW HIGHER TOTALS UPWARDS OF
THE 90TH PERCENTILE, OR UP TO ABOUT 8"-10" OF SNOW IN SOME PLACES.
IF WE SEE FASTER MOVEMENT, AND A WEAKER INFLECTION, THERE WILL BE
FEWER BANDS AND LESS RESIDENCE TIME, THUS SUPPORTING AMOUNTS CLOSER
TO THE 10TH-25TH PERCENTILE IN THE 3"-6" RANGE. THIS WILL BE IN
ADDITION TO THE FIRST SYSTEM, NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ANY COMPACTION
OR MELTING. MUCH LIKE THE FIRST SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN CLIMB SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL POTENTIAL STORM TOTALS (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY), COULD
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5" NEAR DEVILS LAKE, TO A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE
VALLEY CITY AREA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS WILL BE A VERY HEAVY
AND WET SNOW DUE TO THE TEMPERATURES BEING RELATIVELY WARM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THE TWO MAJOR IMPACTS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH THE SITE AT GREATEST RISK FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO FALLING SNOW BEING FAR. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS, IT APPEARS THAT A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING AND THUS HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST OF OUR TAF SITES. THAT SAID, MOST TAF SITES
WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PERIODIC REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. PREDOMINANT MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY AT FAR WHERE SNOWFALL DURATION
AND HEAVIEST RATES ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SLIGHT NUDGE NORTHWARD THAT MAY CAUSE IMPACTS TO MAKE IT
TO BJI AND GFK AS WELL, BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
WHAT WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES IS WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS. AS OF 06Z, SITES ARE HOVERING AROUND 1000FT WHERE THE
MAIN SYSTEM IS AND THAT WILL EXPAND WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR PREVAILING IFR BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPARSENESS
OF OBSERVATIONS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR, THE TAF FORECAST
FEATURES BKN010S. AS OBSERVATIONS COME IN, NUDGES CLOSER TO IFR
MAY ARISE FROM AMENDMENTS OR THE NEXT ROUTINE TAF. CEILINGS MAY
IMPROVE TOMORROW EVENING DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVERAGE, BUT EXPECT
CLOUD BASES TO REMAIN VERY LOW JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER
SYSTEM WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BACK DOWN
ONCE AGAIN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NDZ008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ024-
028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-
003-022-023-027>031-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ006-009-
016-017-024-032.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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