246
FXUS63 KFGF 022021
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
321 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST OF A
COOPERSTOWN TO BAUDETTE LINE BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES.
- HEAVY SNOW IS FORECASTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. A WIDE
SWATH OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY WILL SEE LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING FROM
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN, WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW ROTATING
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TODAY WILL
PULL INTO IA/WI THIS EVENING, AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AT THAT POINT. THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL START MOVING
INTO SD TOMORROW, WITH THE NEXT SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING
INTO IA. THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS IT WRAPS UP, WITH CONTINUED SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL START TO QUIET DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER LOW
AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MANY OF THE
MODEL RUNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE
ECMWF EFI DUE TO MOST SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SO THE LOW POPS THE NBM
GIVES US SEEMS GOOD.
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MN. CAMS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TWO CURRENT AREAS OF
PRECIP MERGING AND CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN MN. AT THE CURRENT TIME, PEAK
APRIL INSOLATION HAS KEPT IMPACTS FROM SNOW AND EVEN MIXED
PRECIPITATION FAIRLY MINIMAL. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AROUND SUNSET THE IMPACTS COULD INCREASE. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL
THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF.
..HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THE SETUP IS PRIMED FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WHILE THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
ENSEMBLES IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE SYSTEM TRACKS,
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE IN THE 60 TO 90
PERCENT RANGE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS WELL
AS OUR SOUTHEASTERN EDGE. SOME OF THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS WERE
TRYING TO DROP OVER 12 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ND,
BUT GIVEN THAT IS OVER 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM AND THE FACT
THERE WILL BE SOME COMPACTION/MELTING, THIS SEEMS OVERDONE.
NBM50TH PERCENTILE AND THE NEW NBM 5.0 LEANED A BIT MORE IN THE
6 TO 12 INCH DIRECTION, WHICH SEEMED MORE REASONABLE SO WENT
WITH THAT FOR WSW WORDING AND GRAPHICS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
SATURDAY AND CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DRIFTING, BUT WIDESPREAD
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT SEEM TO BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 900-1000 FT
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW RANGING FROM 1/2 MILE VIS TO 2 MILES,
AND EVERYWHERE BUT KDVL ACTIVELY SNOWING. THAT SNOW WILL GO IN
AND OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ALL TAF SITES SHOULD GET A
BREAK IN SNOW AND IFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW STARTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE MOST
LOCATIONS GOING TO MVFR FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 KTS WITH ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NDZ024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ024-
028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MNZ001>003-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-
003-022-023-027>031-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR MNZ004-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ006-009-
016-017-024-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR MNZ040.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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