445
FXUS63 KFGF 031108
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
608 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SNOW IS FORECASTED THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A WIDE SWATH OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
UPDATES DONE OVERNGHT WERE TO COORD WITH MPX TO ADD GRANT COUNTY
MN TO WINTER STORM WARNING AS MPX WAS DOING WARNING FOR DOUGLAS
AND TODD. KEPT START TIME 4 PM. START TIME FOR 4 PM WAS KEPT FOR
WARNINGS IN REST OF NW/WC MN. SOUTHEAST ND AND SOUTHERN VALLEY
WARNING START TIME KEPT AT 1 AM, BUT DID BREAK OUT GRAND FORKS
IMMEDIATE AREA TO CHANGE START TIME 4 PM. ADVISORY FOR DVL BASIN
TO CAVALIER WAS KEPT AT 4 PM.
COORD WITH BIS ON SNOWFALL MAPS USED FOR DSS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
AND IN OUR GRIDS.
THE SNOW THURSDAY THRU EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OUT OF NW
MN. DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW DID SET UP IN A NARROW ZONE AROUND TRF
TO CROOKSTON WITH 6-9 INCHES.
OVERALL THOUGH NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE UPCOMING SYSTEM WITH
AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKING TO BE FARGO TO BEMIDJI WHERE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF 10-12 INCHES ARE. NORTHWEST EDGE OF HEAVY
SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO SET UP OF DEFORMATION ZONE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH GRAND FORKS AREA ON THE EDGE
BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE TO TAPER THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME
AS SNOWFALL RATES BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT. AS SUCH, THE ADVISORY
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A MODERATE SNOW
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WEBCAMS INDICATE
ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY INCREASING, SO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED OVER TO INCLUDE THE ROSEAU TO EASTERN POLK
LINE OF COUNTIES, AS THIS BAND IS NOT LIKELYH TO MOVE MUCH ANY
TIME SOON. AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
BAND. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NUDGE NORTHEAST, CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE TO
REFLECT THIS, WITH CONTINUED SNOW MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY IN
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY
WESTWARD IS POSSIBLE INTO THE GREATER GRAND FORKS AREA, HOWEVER
ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY IS HEAVILY LIMITED RIGHT NOW EVEN WITH
THE HIGHER NUDGE IN RECENT CAMS IN QPF. THIS IS BECAUSE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE VALLEY REMAIN CLOSER TO FREEZING THAN
OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY. WE'LL BE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS TO DETERMINE IF FURTHER EXPANSION IS NECESSARY, BUT GIVEN
TEMPERATURES IT IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT WE WON'T NEED AN
ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING FROM
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN, WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW ROTATING
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TODAY WILL
PULL INTO IA/WI THIS EVENING, AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AT THAT POINT. THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL START MOVING
INTO SD TOMORROW, WITH THE NEXT SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING
INTO IA. THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS IT WRAPS UP, WITH CONTINUED SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL START TO QUIET DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER LOW
AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MANY OF THE
MODEL RUNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE
ECMWF EFI DUE TO MOST SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SO THE LOW POPS THE NBM
GIVES US SEEMS GOOD.
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MN. CAMS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TWO CURRENT AREAS OF
PRECIP MERGING AND CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN MN. AT THE CURRENT TIME, PEAK
APRIL INSOLATION HAS KEPT IMPACTS FROM SNOW AND EVEN MIXED
PRECIPITATION FAIRLY MINIMAL. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AROUND SUNSET THE IMPACTS COULD INCREASE. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL
THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF.
..HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THE SETUP IS PRIMED FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WHILE THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
ENSEMBLES IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE SYSTEM TRACKS,
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE IN THE 60 TO 90
PERCENT RANGE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS WELL
AS OUR SOUTHEASTERN EDGE. SOME OF THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS WERE
TRYING TO DROP OVER 12 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ND,
BUT GIVEN THAT IS OVER 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM AND THE FACT
THERE WILL BE SOME COMPACTION/MELTING, THIS SEEMS OVERDONE.
NBM50TH PERCENTILE AND THE NEW NBM 5.0 LEANED A BIT MORE IN THE
6 TO 12 INCH DIRECTION, WHICH SEEMED MORE REASONABLE SO WENT
WITH THAT FOR WSW WORDING AND GRAPHICS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
SATURDAY AND CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DRIFTING, BUT WIDESPREAD
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT SEEM TO BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 2000
FT FOR THE MOST PART AND CHANGES TO VFR SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AT LEAST
IMPROVING VISIBILITY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
WINTER STORM ARRIVES. AS THE NEXT WINTER STORM ENTERS THE
REGION, EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR/VLIFR TOWARDS SUNSET AS SNOWFALL
RATES INTENSIFY. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TO IFR DURING
INTENSE SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
DIRECTION OR SPEED ANTICIPATED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR NDZ026-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR NDZ024-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-040.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR MNZ002-003-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR MNZ004-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-
030>032.
UPDATE...PERROUX/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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