549
FXUS63 KFGF 031755
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SNOW IS FORECASTED THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
WIDE SWATH OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A DYNAMIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER
WY AND SD, WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS IOWA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS TOWARDS DULUTH MN BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH SNOW
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE, UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO A NORTHWEST/ZONAL
DIRECTION, WITH A HANDFUL OF WAVES PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH OUR
REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE GLANCES
OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH HINTS OF A
STRONGER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH A SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STUCK IN THE 30S MOST
DAYS, A LITTLE COLDER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SUNDAY WAVE, AND A
LITTLE BIT WARMER MIDWEEK AHEAD.
..HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN A FURTHER NORTH TRACK AND ONE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA, WHICH
WOULD LEAN INTO THE MORE SOUTHERN SPECTRUM OF SCENARIOS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME IN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TODAY, WITH THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NBM PUSHING THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH 20 OR 30
MILES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ALL TOLD, THIS LEAVES MUCH OF OUR
FA IN A POSITION TO SEE HEFTY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, BUT TAKES
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
AS FOR HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS: SNOW
WILL BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON, FIRST IN SOUTHEASTERN ND,
EXPANDING AREA WIDE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES
AFTER SUNSET, WHICH WILL DRIVE A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN A BAND SOMEWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO
NORTHWESTERN MN. DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES, CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE. EXPECT THESE POOR CONDITIONS TO LAST
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AND FILLS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, SNOWFALL RATES WILL
DECREASE, WITH SNOW THEN CEASING FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOWFALL
WILL END AREA WIDE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE CUTOFF OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR ON THE SYSTEMS NORTHERN EDGE. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
WILL RIDE THE LINE ON IF THEY SEE 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW. THE
GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE VERY TIGHT, WHICH MEANS
TOTALS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE ADVISORY AND NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNED AREAS. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY
(6+ INCH ACCUMULATIONS) TO EXTEND ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD INTO
THE ADVISORY AREA IS LOW. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THESE
REASONS.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT IN THE WARNED
AREA AFTER DARK THIS EVENING, PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A POCKET OF VFR IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL FILL IN WITH MVFR
BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE FURTHER
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS AS SNOW DEVELOPS.
SNOW WILL BRING IFR TO LIFR TO ALL TERMINALS. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT KFAR AND KBJI, WHERE +SN IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIFR MAY PERSIST LONGER
THEN SHOWN IN THIS SET OF TAFS IF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
BECOMES MORE STATIONARY OVER THE TERMINALS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY MORNING AT KDVL, BUT LIKELY LINGER AT OTHER TAF SITES,
PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH ON SATURDAY MORNING,
SUSTAINED NEAR 15 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR NDZ026-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR NDZ024-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR MNZ001.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR MNZ002-003-029-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR MNZ004-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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