977
FXUS63 KFGF 032326
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
626 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SNOW IS FORECASTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SNOW HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
ROADS BECOMING SNOW COVERED IN THE SHEYENNE AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEYS. VISIBILITY SIMPLY FROM SNOW RATES IS ALREADY DOWN TO
1/SM IN PLACES OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. AS THE SUN SETS IN THE NEXT HOUR EXPECT
SNOW TO BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE EFFICIENTLY ACROSS BOTH
GRASSY AND MAN MADE SURFACES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A DYNAMIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER
WY AND SD, WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS IOWA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS TOWARDS DULUTH MN BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN THIS
SYSTEMS WAKE, UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO A NORTHWEST/ZONAL DIRECTION,
WITH A HANDFUL OF WAVES PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH OUR REGION BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE GLANCES OUR AREA
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH HINTS OF A STRONGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH A SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STUCK IN THE 30S MOST DAYS, A LITTLE
COLDER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SUNDAY WAVE, AND A LITTLE BIT WARMER
MIDWEEK AHEAD.
..HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN A FURTHER NORTH TRACK AND ONE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA, WHICH
WOULD LEAN INTO THE MORE SOUTHERN SPECTRUM OF SCENARIOS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME IN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TODAY, WITH THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NBM PUSHING THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH 20 OR 30
MILES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ALL TOLD, THIS LEAVES MUCH OF OUR
FA IN A POSITION TO SEE HEFTY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, BUT TAKES
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
AS FOR HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS: SNOW
WILL BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON, FIRST IN SOUTHEASTERN ND,
EXPANDING AREA WIDE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES
AFTER SUNSET, WHICH WILL DRIVE A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN A BAND SOMEWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO
NORTHWESTERN MN. DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES, CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE. EXPECT THESE POOR CONDITIONS TO LAST
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AND FILLS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, SNOWFALL RATES WILL
DECREASE, WITH SNOW THEN CEASING FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOWFALL
WILL END AREA WIDE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE CUTOFF OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR ON THE SYSTEMS NORTHERN EDGE. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
WILL RIDE THE LINE ON IF THEY SEE 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW. THE
GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE VERY TIGHT, WHICH MEANS
TOTALS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE ADVISORY AND NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNED AREAS. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY
(6+ INCH) ACCUMULATIONS TO EXTEND ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD INTO
THE ADVISORY AREA IS LOW. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THESE
REASONS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT IN
THE WARNED AREA AFTER DARK THIS EVENING, PERSISTING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AS SNOW BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
REMAIN VFR BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND LIFR/IFR CIGS
BY MIDNIGHT. VIS WILL DEPEND ON SNOW RATES AT ANY GIVEN BUT ONCE
SNOW BECOMES WIDESPREAD EXPECT FREQUENT 1/2SM TO 1SM WITH
OCCASIONAL 1/4SM. THIS WILL IMPROVE BY 12-18Z TOMORROW BUT
OVERALL SUB-PAR FLYING WEATHER. WINDS PICKING UP LATE TOMORROW
MORNING FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20KTS FOR FARGO BUT
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE OF LOW CONCERN DUE TO THE WET NATURE OF THE
SNOW. MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT BEST FOR MOST WITH A 6-12
HR PERIOD OF LIFR AND BRIEF VLIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW
RATES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ026-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ024-
028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ001.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ002-003-
029-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ004-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...TT
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