059
FXUS63 KFGF 041141
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SNOW IS FORECASTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
WELL THE TROWAL IS DOING TROWAL THINGS BUT THE WARM AIR ALOFT IS
NOT VERY "ALOFT" WITH NEAR SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
1-2C LEADING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR MANY WITHIN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST MN. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LAYER
COOLING IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND FAVORS A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BUT
THE DAMAGE MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN DONE WITH THE CEILING LIKELY
BEING CHOPPED DOWN TO 6-8" FOR MANY AT THIS POINT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS MORE DIFFICULT TO COME BY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE
HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLES. WOULD TAKE THE REMAINING 7 HOURS OF
DARKNESS TO AT 1"/HR RATES TO CATCH BACK UP TO WHERE THE
FORECAST HAD US AT THIS TIME OF THE NIGHT EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. NOT
TO SAY SOMEONE WONT STILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 10" BUT THIS
FORECASTER IS EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SNOW HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
ROADS BECOMING SNOW COVERED IN THE SHEYENNE AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEYS. VISIBILITY SIMPLY FROM SNOW RATES IS ALREADY DOWN TO
1/SM IN PLACES OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. AS THE SUN SETS IN THE NEXT HOUR EXPECT
SNOW TO BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE EFFICIENTLY ACROSS BOTH
GRASSY AND MAN MADE SURFACES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A DYNAMIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER
WY AND SD, WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS IOWA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS TOWARDS DULUTH MN BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN THIS
SYSTEMS WAKE, UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO A NORTHWEST/ZONAL DIRECTION,
WITH A HANDFUL OF WAVES PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH OUR REGION BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE GLANCES OUR AREA
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH HINTS OF A STRONGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH A SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STUCK IN THE 30S MOST DAYS, A LITTLE
COLDER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SUNDAY WAVE, AND A LITTLE BIT WARMER
MIDWEEK AHEAD.
..HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN A FURTHER NORTH TRACK AND ONE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA, WHICH
WOULD LEAN INTO THE MORE SOUTHERN SPECTRUM OF SCENARIOS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME IN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TODAY, WITH THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NBM PUSHING THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH 20 OR 30
MILES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ALL TOLD, THIS LEAVES MUCH OF OUR
FA IN A POSITION TO SEE HEFTY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, BUT TAKES
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
AS FOR HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS: SNOW
WILL BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON, FIRST IN SOUTHEASTERN ND,
EXPANDING AREA WIDE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES
AFTER SUNSET, WHICH WILL DRIVE A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN A BAND SOMEWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO
NORTHWESTERN MN. DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES, CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE. EXPECT THESE POOR CONDITIONS TO LAST
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AND FILLS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, SNOWFALL RATES WILL
DECREASE, WITH SNOW THEN CEASING FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOWFALL
WILL END AREA WIDE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE CUTOFF OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR ON THE SYSTEMS NORTHERN EDGE. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
WILL RIDE THE LINE ON IF THEY SEE 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW. THE
GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE VERY TIGHT, WHICH MEANS
TOTALS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE ADVISORY AND NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNED AREAS. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY
(6+ INCH) ACCUMULATIONS TO EXTEND ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD INTO
THE ADVISORY AREA IS LOW. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THESE
REASONS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT IN
THE WARNED AREA AFTER DARK THIS EVENING, PERSISTING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KDVL. LOOK FOR CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SNOW AT KFAR AND KBJI.
VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING HEAVY
SNOW. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE STARTING AS EARLY AS MID MORNING,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING
PERIODS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-
014>016-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>003-029-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ004-
007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...LYNCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page