562
FXUS63 KFGF 041545
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1045 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY, WET SNOW BETWEEN 6 TO 16 INCHES IS SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTING TO THE AREA. THE HEAVY NATURE OF LARGE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE RESULTING IN IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL, SPORADIC
POWER OUTAGES, AND POSES A HEALTH RISK TO THOSE REMOVING SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
UPDATE TO THE KEY MESSAGE AS WE CONTINUE TO RECEIVE IMPACTS FROM
HEAVY SNOW.
WE'VE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS 6-10 INCHES OF HEAVY, WET SNOW,
WITH UP TO 16 INCHES REPORTED IN RANSOM COUNTY ND. ADDITIONAL
1-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY, EVEN WITH COMPACTION AND
MELTING THAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY -
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN MINNESOTA NEAR RED LAKES TO BEMIDJI REGION.
THE HEAVY AND STICKY NATURE OF SNOW IS EXACERBATING IMPACTS.
NO TRAVEL ADVISORIES AND THE CLOSURE OF MAJOR THOROUGHFARES LIKE
I-29 AND I-94 WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE OCCURRED, WITH MESSAGING
FROM STATE DOTS AND HIGHWAY PATROLS STATING ADDITIONAL
CLOSURES/ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED.
EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW
(LIKE GRAND FORKS) ARE RESULTING IN NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS. REPORTS
RECEIVED FROM SNOW MAINTENANCE COMPANIES REPORT THAT SNOW IS
VERY DIFFICULT TO MOVE AROUND, STATING THIS SNOW IS
"NIGHTMARISH" DUE TO THE WET, HEAVY NATURE OF SNOW.
THE HEAVY NATURE OF SNOW ALSO POSES A HEALTH RISK TO THOSE WHO
WILL BE SHOVELING/MOVING SNOW. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR
THOSE WITH CARDIAC ISSUES.
REAL TIME POWER OUTAGE MAPS AND REPORTS RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA AND PARTNER CALLS/CHATS ALSO REVEAL INCREASING AMOUNT OF
POWER OUTAGES IN THESE AREAS; AGAIN, THIS IS DUE TO THE HEAVY
AND STICKY NATURE OF LARGE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WE'VE BEEN INCREASING OUR MESSAGING IN OUR TEXT OF WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AS WELL AS WITHIN GRAPHICAL MESSAGES OF THESE IMPACTS
AS THEY REVEAL THEMSELVES.
AS FAR AS WHEN HEAVY SNOW ENDS, THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
GRADUAL PROPAGATION OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE HOLDING HEAVY SNOW
TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE BY MAINTAINING
100% POPS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WHILE FOLLOWING THIS PROPAGATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS MORNING IS FALLING ACROSS A FAIRLY WIDE
SWATH EXTENDING FROM VALLEY CITY THROUGH FOSSTON. SNOWFALL RATES
OF ONE INCH PER HOUR OR MORE HAVE BEEN REPORTED, WITH TOTALS
REACHING OVER 6 INCHES SO FAR IN FARGO, AND 5 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST MAHNOMEN COUNTY. A HEAVY BAND HAS BEEN IN PLACE NOW
FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN BECKER, CLAY, NORMAN, AND MAHNOMEN
COUNTIES, WITH VISIBILITY FALLING TO 1/4 MILE DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, THEN NORTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A DYNAMIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER
WY AND SD, WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS IOWA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS TOWARDS DULUTH MN BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN THIS
SYSTEMS WAKE, UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO A NORTHWEST/ZONAL DIRECTION,
WITH A HANDFUL OF WAVES PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH OUR REGION BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE GLANCES OUR AREA
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH HINTS OF A STRONGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH A SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STUCK IN THE 30S MOST DAYS, A LITTLE
COLDER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SUNDAY WAVE, AND A LITTLE BIT WARMER
MIDWEEK AHEAD.
..HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN A FURTHER NORTH TRACK AND ONE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA, WHICH
WOULD LEAN INTO THE MORE SOUTHERN SPECTRUM OF SCENARIOS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME IN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TODAY, WITH THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NBM PUSHING THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH 20 OR 30
MILES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ALL TOLD, THIS LEAVES MUCH OF OUR
FA IN A POSITION TO SEE HEFTY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, BUT TAKES
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
AS FOR HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS: SNOW
WILL BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON, FIRST IN SOUTHEASTERN ND,
EXPANDING AREA WIDE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES
AFTER SUNSET, WHICH WILL DRIVE A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN A BAND SOMEWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO
NORTHWESTERN MN. DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES, CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE. EXPECT THESE POOR CONDITIONS TO LAST
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AND FILLS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, SNOWFALL RATES WILL
DECREASE, WITH SNOW THEN CEASING FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOWFALL
WILL END AREA WIDE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE CUTOFF OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR ON THE SYSTEMS NORTHERN EDGE. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
WILL RIDE THE LINE ON IF THEY SEE 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW. THE
GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE VERY TIGHT, WHICH MEANS
TOTALS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE ADVISORY AND NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNED AREAS. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY
(6+ INCH) ACCUMULATIONS TO EXTEND ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD INTO
THE ADVISORY AREA IS LOW. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THESE
REASONS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT IN
THE WARNED AREA AFTER DARK THIS EVENING, PERSISTING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KDVL. LOOK FOR CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SNOW AT KFAR AND KBJI.
VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING HEAVY
SNOW. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE STARTING AS EARLY AS MID MORNING,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING
PERIODS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ027-
029-030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>003-029-040.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032.
UPDATE...CJ/LYNCH/TT
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...LYNCH
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