375
FXUS63 KFGF 051738
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY BRINGS RAIN, WIND AND SNOW.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. OVERNIGHT FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO LOCATIONS WITH THE
HIGHEST SNOW PACK FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF BECKER, MAHNOMEN, CLEARWATER, AND BELTRAMI COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG AND NOW OCCLUDED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY,
WET SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE DETAILS ON THESE BELOW.
WITH A FRESH, WET SNOWPACK THAT IS CURRENTLY SUCCUMBING TO
MELTING BOTH FROM AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL AS
WARMING GROUND UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND APRIL SUN, DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO AREAS THAT CAN
MAINTAIN A LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT, WHICH IS LOW IN CONFIDENCE
WHERE EXACTLY THIS WILL HAPPEN. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS/MORNINGS AS SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN INCREASED CONCURRENT WITH LOCALLY COOLED AIR MASS
OVER THE DEGRADING SNOWPACK.
A QUICK MOVING, WEAK SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH (FOR THOSE WHO MAY SEE
SNOW IN THE MORNING), AND/OR DRIFTING SNOW POTENTIALLY LEADING
TO ISOLATED ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME -
COLLOQUIALLY KNOWN AS 'DRIFT AND STICK.'
GETTING INTO MID NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING WINTER IMPACTS, RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MORE DETAILS ON THIS BELOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
FOLLOWING, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS A RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RE-INTRODUCE ACTIVE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND/OR UPPER
MIDWEST. AS OF NOW MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR OTHER THAN
WE INCREASE OUR CHANCE FOR A WETTER PATTERN DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
..NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS AND REPORTS RECEIVED
WE'VE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS 6-10 INCHES OF HEAVY, WET SNOW,
WITH UP TO 16 INCHES REPORTED IN RANSOM AND SOUTHERN BARNES
COUNTIES IN ND. DUE TO THE HEAVY AND STICKY NATURE OF SNOW,
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN EXACERBATED. THESE HAVE INCLUDED NO TRAVEL
ADVISORIES AND THE CLOSURE OF MAJOR THOROUGHFARES LIKE I-94
WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN
6 INCHES OF SNOW (LIKE GRAND FORKS), NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED. REPORTS RECEIVED FROM SNOW MAINTENANCE COMPANIES
REPORT THAT SNOW WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO MOVE AROUND, STATING
THIS SNOW AS "NIGHTMARISH" DUE TO THE WET, HEAVY NATURE OF
SNOW.
THIS HEAVY NATURE OF SNOW ALSO POSES A HEALTH RISK TO THOSE WHO
WILL BE SHOVELING/MOVING SNOW. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR
THOSE WITH CARDIAC ISSUES.
REAL TIME POWER OUTAGE MAPS AND REPORTS RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA AND PARTNER CALLS/CHATS CONTINUES TO REVEAL NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED OVER 10 INCHES;
AGAIN, THIS IS DUE TO THE HEAVY AND STICKY NATURE OF LARGE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS STICKING TO POWER LINES AND DOWNING TREES ON POWER
LINES.
..ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
THE STRONG AND NOW OCCLUDED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY,
WET SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL UNDER 3 INCHES, THANKS
TO POWER OF APRIL SUN AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF SNOW HELPING
COMPACT AND MELT SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DESPITE MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS, THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW RATES REDUCING VISIBILITY AS WELL AS LARGE ACCUMULATION
ALREADY RECEIVED WILL CONTINUE WARNING-TYPE IMPACTS IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHICH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WANE IN
INTENSITY WITHIN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
..MIDWEEK SYSTEM POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING WINTER IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THERE IS NOTEWORTHY
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS HOW WELL ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL INFLUENCE WINTER IMPACTS (MORE LIKELY
TO MITIGATE THEM GIVEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS INFLUENCE OF APRIL SUN DURING
THE DAYTIME).
WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SEEMS TO REMAIN BELOW 5
INCHES AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A SCENARIO THAT JUXTAPOSES
SNOWFALL WITH INCREASED WINDS. THIS INTRODUCES POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW AS SNOW IS FALLING.
THE COMBINATION OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
UNDER 5 INCHES INTRODUCES A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY-TYPE
WINTER IMPACTS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ALREADY OCCURING AT KGFK, KDVL AND KTVF, THEY WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KBJI AND KFAR BY MID AFTERNOON. MVFR WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY BREAK UP INTO A SCT DECK
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF CEILINGS, WINDS
ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST UP TO ABOUT 30 KNOTS AT
KDVL AND KGFK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO KBJI, KTVF AND KFAR AS WELL, ALBEIT
WINDS SHOULDN'T GUST QUITE AS HIGH AT THESE TERMINALS. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIE OFF TONIGHT, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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