690
FXUS63 KFGF 071128
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
628 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY BRINGS RAIN, WIND AND SNOW.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
PATCHY FOG IS BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. VISIBILITY
HAS BEEN VARIABLE, BUT GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 1/2 MILE AND 1
MILE AT TIMES. FURTHER NORTH, HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PTYPE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR WINTRY MIX
OR SNOW BEING NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS AND THE ADJACENT NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS WITH RELATIVELY FRESH
SNOWPACK TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND, IN SOME
LOCATIONS, BELOW ZERO. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE SAME AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT AIR MASS MAY
BE TOO DRY TO ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE FOG.
A WELL ORGANIZED, STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE CLIPPER, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-45 MPH WILL
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGHEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST
ND - THIS IS WHERE THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AREAS IN SOUTHEAST ND WILL SEE LESSER WINDS
AS MIXING WILL BE LOCALLY MUTED OVER SNOWPACK.
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, IT
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND ADDITIONAL GUSTY WEST WINDS IN ITS
IMMEDIATE WAKE. MORE DETAILS ON THIS AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY-LEVEL IMPACTS FOUND BELOW.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER, THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE QUASI-
ZONAL / SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE TREND TOWARD NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. AS
OF NOW, THE CHANCE FOR WINTER IMPACTS WITHIN THIS PERIOD IS VERY
LOW DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE FREEZING, ALONG WITH LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION BEYOND LATE THIS WEEKEND.
..WEDNESDAY'S POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINTER IMPACTS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY FAVOR A TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER THAT WOULD KEEP VAST MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A LARGE SUBSET
OF GUIDANCE THAT STILL EEKS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL JUST OVER
THE BOARD (PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MINNESOTA INTERNATIONAL
BORDER), CONCURRENT WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO A SMALL SUBSET OF GUIDANCE THAT BLOSSOMS A LARGER
AREA OF SNOWFALL OVER OUR AREA, STILL MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
200. THIS SCENARIO FEATURES MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES QUICKLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
TIMING OF THE CLIPPER AND ITS SNOW FAVORS A PASSAGE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS, WHICH WOULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE HELP OF APRIL'S INSOLATION. THUS,
MAIN IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE TIED TO REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
FALLING SNOW CONCURRENT WITH GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING
SNOW. THIS WOULDN'T BE THE 'NORMAL' BLOWING SNOW THAT OUR
REGION SEES, AND WOULD NEED TO BE TIED TO FALLING SNOW WITH
GUSTY WINDS.
ULTIMATELY, WE ARE STILL MAINTAINING AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINTER IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. KFAR COULD
SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY AS THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEARBY. ELSEWHERE, CLEAR
SKIES GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. VFR
CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS
START TO APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY, AS RAIN AND WINTRY MIX MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WINTRY MIX WILL
BE AROUND KTVF, BUT COULD BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY AT KDVL AND KGFK
AS WELL. FURTHER SOUTH, RAIN WILL BE THE FAVORED PTYPE HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BUT WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT KDVL AND UP TO
30 KNOTS ELSEWHERE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...LYNCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page